吴沐宸1, 陈江涛2, 夏侯唐凡1, 赵炜2, 刘宇1,3()
收稿日期:
2021-11-15
修回日期:
2021-12-08
接受日期:
2021-12-20
出版日期:
2023-01-15
发布日期:
2021-12-24
通讯作者:
刘宇
E-mail:yuliu@uestc.edu.cn
基金资助:
Muchen WU1, Jiangtao CHEN2, Tangfan XIAHOU1, Wei ZHAO2, Yu LIU1,3()
Received:
2021-11-15
Revised:
2021-12-08
Accepted:
2021-12-20
Online:
2023-01-15
Published:
2021-12-24
Contact:
Yu LIU
E-mail:yuliu@uestc.edu.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
灵敏度分析(SA)能辨识影响复杂系统响应的关键参数,为系统的稳健设计提供决策依据。非参数化概率盒作为一种典型的不精确概率模型,可以同时量化随机和认知2类不确定性,且在实际工程中应用广泛。由于非参数化概率盒耦合了随机和认知不确定性,非参数化概率盒下灵敏度分析方法能阐明输入概率盒的随机和认知不确定性对系统响应不确定性的影响程度。从随机与认知不确定性分离式角度出发,提出了一种非参数化概率盒下分离式灵敏度分析(SSA)方法。构建了格点法和期望值法分离非参数化概率盒的随机和认知不确定性,采用双层嵌套不确定性传播算法建立输出响应的概率盒,提出了最大方差和面积度量指标分别衡量系统输入的随机、认知不确定性对输出的随机、认知不确定性的影响。以NACA0012翼型升阻比预测为例,分析了来流参数和湍流模型参数的随机、认知不确定性对升阻比的随机、认知不确定性的影响。
中图分类号:
吴沐宸, 陈江涛, 夏侯唐凡, 赵炜, 刘宇. 非参数化概率盒下随机与认知不确定性的分离式 灵敏度分析[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(1): 226658-226658.
Muchen WU, Jiangtao CHEN, Tangfan XIAHOU, Wei ZHAO, Yu LIU. Separating sensitivity analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in non-parametric probability-box[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2023, 44(1): 226658-226658.
表 6
输入参数赋为试验标定值时输出概率盒的面积和最大方差以及相对误差
输入参数 | 面积(相对误差/%) | 最大方差(相对误差/%) |
---|---|---|
10.628 7 (1.02) | 85.600 2 (1.52) | |
10.615 3 (1.14) | 85.466 5 (1.73) | |
10.317 7 (3.91) | 83.072 9 (4.49) | |
10.249 0 (4.55) | 82.597 9 (5.03) | |
10.502 5 (2.19) | 84.508 1 (2.84) | |
10.206 3 (4.95) | 82.006 0 (5.71) | |
10.084 2 (6.09) | 80.882 0 (7) | |
9.711 7 (9.56) | 78.082 9 (10.22) | |
9.590 6 (10.69) | 77.069 8 (11.39) |
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