基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命预测

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23291

Abstract

Abstract: For the nonlinearity and three-source variability of aeroengines in the performance degradation process, a performance degradation modeling and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction method for aero-engines based on nonlinear Wiener process is proposed. First, in order to solve the limitations of potential hypothesis in most current RUL prediction methods, that is, the drift coefficient of the current time estimate is exactly equal to the posterior estimate of the drift coefficient of the previous time, a new class of performance degradation model considering both nonlinearity and three-source variability is established under the framework of state space model. Further, the associated RUL distribution is derived under the first hitting time. Then, for the newly developed aero-engines lacking historical data and prior information, a parameter estimation method based on the Kalman filtering and Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm is proposed, so that the estimated model parameters are independent of the historical data volume. After obtaining a new performance degradation data, the model parameters can be estimated adaptively so as to update the RUL distribution of aeroengines in real time. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of RUL prediction and provide a reliable basis for maintenance decision of aeroengines.

Key words: Wiener process, life prediction, performance degradation modeling, expectation conditional maximization, aero-engine

CLC Number:

V263

WANG Xi, HU Changhua, REN Ziqiang, XIONG Wei. Performance degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for aero-engine based on nonlinear Wiener process[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2020, 41(2): 223291-223291.

References 23

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Performance degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for aero-engine based on nonlinear Wiener process

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