Abstract: This article presented a support activity centered equipment support resources forecasting method based on the characteristics of equipment support resources being consumed or processed in equipment operational activities and support activities. Driven by equipment operational activities, a relationship between equipment mission and support activity was constructed, which was constrained by equipment reliability, maintainability, testability, etc. The characteristics of frequency and executing time of equipment logistic support activities were abstracted with focus on operational activities and support activities. Equipment support resources were divided into two categories according to whether the resources were processed or consumed in the activity. Equipment support resources forecasting input items were summarized. A quantitative requirement forecast model for equipment support resources was constructed from the two aspects of consuming resources and processing resources. Thus the mean unit quantity of equipment support resources requirement can be calculated and forecast for a specific deployment station in a certain duration of time. The proposed method is demonstrated via a practical case, which proves that the model and analysis is effective and that it can provide theoretical and technical support for the analysis and forecast of support resources requirements.

Key words: equipment, logistics, reliability, supportability, maintainability