高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0316

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高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析

沈作军¹, 柳青², 肖佳平¹

1. 北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院, 北京 100083;
2. 中国航天科工集团第三研究院, 北京 100074

收稿日期:2015-10-19 修回日期:2015-11-22 出版日期:2016-01-25 发布日期:2015-12-04
通讯作者: 沈作军,Tel.:010-82316572,E-mail:shenzuojun@buaa.edu.cn E-mail:shenzuojun@buaa.edu.cn
作者简介:沈作军男,博士,教授。主要研究方向:高超声速飞行器系统研发,临近空间制导控制技术,飞行力学。Tel:010-82316572,E-mail:shenzuojun@buaa.edu.cn;柳青女,高级工程师,博士研究生。主要研究方向:高超声速飞行器制导控制系统研制,飞行控制技术。Tel:010-681920755,E-mail:liuliu_lock@126.com;肖佳平男,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:导航与制导技术,临近空间大气环境建模。Tel:010-82316894,E-mail:xjpmail@126.com

Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering

SHEN Zuojun¹, LIU Qing², XIAO Jiaping¹

1. School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China;
2. The Third Research Institute, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp., Beijing 100074, China

Received:2015-10-19 Revised:2015-11-22 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2015-12-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对高超声速飞行器研制工程的高风险特点,对工程决策方和研制方面临的不同类型风险进行了建模分析。基于系统方案或关键技术的固有风险概率和抽象化的研发与验证过程,分别计算分析了工程决策方误判验收通过不合格产品和研制方过度研发或重复验证较低失败概率产品的风险概率,进而提出了高风险研发项目中研制方过度研发风险的概念,明确了工程决策误判风险与研制方过度研发风险的相互影响规律,并基于概率方法建立了一种可以综合权衡决策方风险和研制方风险、合理确定研制周期的系统工程优化方法。

关键词: 高超声速飞行器, 研制工程, 过度研发风险, 决策方风险, 风险概率, 系统工程优化

Abstract:

Different risks associated with decision party and system developer are modeled and analyzed aiming at the high risk characteristics of hypersonic vehicle development.Based upon the inherent probabilistic risks of system design and critical technologies,a generic test and verification process is adopted to calculate the probabilities of accepting unqualified systems by the decision party,or over-testing low risk systems or technologies by the developer.The relation between decision risk and developer's risk is studied,and then a system engineering approach for balancing the risks as well as optimizing the development cycle is proposed based on probability calculation.

Key words: hypersonic vehicle, engineering development, developer's risk, decision risk, risk probability, systems engineering optimization

中图分类号:

沈作军, 柳青, 肖佳平. 高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析[J]. 航空学报, 2016, 37(1): 317-323.

SHEN Zuojun, LIU Qing, XIAO Jiaping. Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(1): 317-323.

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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主管单位：中国科学技术协会主办单位：中国航空学会北京航空航天大学

高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析

Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering

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