部分可观测信息条件下装备剩余寿命预测

doi:CNKI:11-1929/V.20120201.0944.010

Abstract

Abstract: In order to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) for a degraded system with partially observed information, the historical lifetime data and performance degradation data are fused together. Firstly, the hidden Markov model (HHM) is used for state evaluation to get the transition probability matrix and observation probability matrix of the system. Secondly, the Bayesian method is used to renew continually the conditional probability distribution of the equipment’s state. Then, a proportional hazards model (PHM) is used for reliability analysis to get the failure rate and reliability functions of the system. The remaining useful life distribution for the equipment is thus obtained. Case study indicates that the method can improve prediction precision effectively, which can help provide logistics personnel with a scientific basis for maintenance decision making.

Key words: condition based maintenance, remaining useful life, hidden Markov model, proportional hazards model, prediction

CLC Number:

SHANG Yongshuang, LI Wenhai, LIU Changjie, SHENG Pei. Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Equipment with Partially Observed Information[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2012, (5): 848-854.

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Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Equipment with Partially Observed Information

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