基于贝叶斯因子和二阶概率方法的圣地亚热传导模型确认挑战问题

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2014.0097

Abstract

Abstract:

The objective of the thermal model validation challenge problem presented at American Sandia National Laboratory is to develop methodologies associated with model validation. The article summarizes the key content to answer this problem based on modern model validation idea. Bayes factor is employed as a validation metric to find whether the experimental data supports the model. The distribution of model prediction is obtained by the second-order probability method which propagates both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty through the model, and the confidence of the model prediction is calculated from the distribution. Finally the article makes a sensitivity analysis with the model parameters to identify their effects on the prediction. The study indicates that the experimental data supports the given model, the thermal conductivity contributes most to the uncertainty in the model prediction, and with 99.97% confidence we can conclude that the failure probability of the material under regulatory condition predicted by the model doesn't meet the regulatory criterion.

Key words: model validation challenge problem, Bayes factor, validation metric, second-order probability method, model prediction, sensitivity analysis

CLC Number:

ZHAO Liang, YANG Zhanping. Sandia Model Validation Thermal Challenge Problem Based on Bayes Factor and Second-order Probability Method[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2014, 35(9): 2513-2521.

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Sandia Model Validation Thermal Challenge Problem Based on Bayes Factor and Second-order Probability Method

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