关键词: 不确定性, 可靠性分析, 概率可靠性模型, 非概率集合可靠性模型, 概率-非概率可靠性模型

Abstract: This article uses a combination of probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods to describe the uncertain factors that influence structural reliability analysis. Based on the probabilistic reliability model and non-probabilistic set-based reliability model, a new hybrid probabilistic and nonprobabilistic reliability model is proposed. First， the performance function is analyzed by the non-probabilistic set-based reliability model, and then the reliability of all regions in the normalized interval variable space is summed up. In this way, the reliability of a structure can be obtained. Based on the same uncertain information, the calculated results of the hybrid reliability model and the probabilistic reliability model are equivalent. The computation of the reliability of a classical structure and a wing stiffening plate are used to illustrate that the hybrid model is as effective as the traditional probabilistic reliability model. The results indicate that this hybrid model is more reasonable for the analysis and design of structures and can ensure their security.

Key words: uncertainties, reliability analysis, probabilistic reliability model, non-probabilistic set-based reliability model, probabilistic and non-probabilistic hybrid reliability model