航空学报 > 2014, Vol. 35 Issue (7): 1931-1940   doi: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0477

基于贝叶斯更新的飞机结构腐蚀可靠度模型

张春晓, 周美茵, 王志平   

  1. 中国民航大学 天津市民用航空器适航与维修重点实验室, 天津 300300
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-29 修回日期:2013-11-28 出版日期:2014-07-25 发布日期:2013-12-17
  • 通讯作者: 张春晓,Tel.:022-24092054E-mail:cxzhang@cauc.edu.cn E-mail:cxzhang@cauc.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:张春晓女,硕士,副教授,硕士生导师。主要研究方向:统计与优化。Tel:022-24092054E-mail:cxzhang@cauc.edu.cn周美茵女,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:应用统计。E-mail:meiyinzhou@126.com王志平男,博士,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:材料学与表面工程。Tel:022-24092074E-mail:zpwang@cauc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项资金(3122013D004);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(21303261)

Reliability Model of Aircraft Structure Corrosion Based on Bayesian Updated

ZHANG Chunxiao, ZHOU Meiyin, WANG Zhiping   

  1. Tianjin Key Laboratory for Civil Aircraft Airworthiness and Maintenance, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
  • Received:2013-08-29 Revised:2013-11-28 Online:2014-07-25 Published:2013-12-17
  • Supported by:

    Special Fund of Civil Aviation of China of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(3122013D004); National Natural Science Foundation of China (21303261)

摘要:

民用飞机结构腐蚀发展的时变性和样本采集的局限性,给腐蚀检测数据分布函数的确定及参数的估计带来了很大的不确定性。针对这一问题,给出了基于贝叶斯公式的合理分布函数选取及参数估计方法。为满足在役飞机结构可靠性动态管理的需求,基于贝叶斯更新思路,将反映结构性能退化共性规律的预测模型视为先验模型,沿着具体结构生命周期不断挖掘利用新信息,建立具体飞机结构腐蚀失效概率和可靠度的动态预测模型。算例采用某型民用飞机地板梁结构腐蚀的无损检测数据,结果显示:腐蚀深度的合理分布为双参数威布尔分布,基于贝叶斯更新后的腐蚀失效概率计算得到的结构可靠度与未更新的显著不同。表明更新后的可靠度因为既考虑了模型参数的历史先验信息,又利用了当前数据实时更新了预测模型,从而有效地降低了有限样本带来的不确定性,使得预测值稳健且具有时变性,更符合工程实际。

关键词: 飞机结构, 腐蚀, 不确定性, 贝叶斯更新, 可靠度

Abstract:

The time-dependent nature in the development of civil aircraft structure corrosion and the limitations of sample collection have brought uncertainty to the distribution form and parameters of structure corrosion data. Therefore, an approach to select a reasonable distribution function and parameter estimation method is presented in this paper based on Bayesian formula. To meet the demands of the dynamic reliability management of aircraft structures in service, the dynamic forecast models are provided of the corrosion failure probability and the reliability of aircraft structures based on the Bayesian updating with the condition of new testing data being input constantly. The nondestructive testing data of floor beam structure corrosion in a civil aircraft are taken as an example, and the results show that the reasonable distribution of corrosion depth exhibits a Weibull distribution with two parameters, and the calculated reliability of the floor beam structure based on Bayesian updated corrosion failure probability is different from that without updating. It indicates that the updated reliability not only considers the priori information of the model parameters, but also uses the current data to update the forecast model timely, which can effectively reduce the uncertainty resulting from the limited number of samples. Therefore, the forecasts are steady, dynamic, and more in line with engineering practice.

Key words: aircraft structure, corrosion, uncertainty, Bayesian updated, reliability

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