二元共载系统退化相关的两阶段退化模型及可靠性分析

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2023.29046

Abstract

Abstract:

A two-stage degradation model considering degradation rate interactions is proposed for the degradation of binary load-sharing components in highly complex airborne systems affected by degradation process interactions and load sharing. Firstly， a two-component degradation dependence characterization method based on degradation rate interaction is investigated to establish a two-component degradation correlation model without considering the influence of load sharing. Secondly， considering the influence of load sharing on degradation rate， the system degradation process is divided into two stages with a component failure as a variable point， and a two-component degradation correlation model with the influence of load sharing is constructed. The model parameters are estimated using the great likelihood estimation method， and the reliability model and the remaining life model of the system are constructed. Finally， taking an aviation component as an example， the reliability calculation of the load-sharing system related to binary degradation is carried out， and the proposed method provides support for the reliability analysis of the degradation and failure of binary load-sharing components of complex systems.

Key words: degradation correlation, load sharing, reliability analysis, Monte Carlo, remaining life

CLC Number:

V240.2

Fan ZHANG, Bohan CHENG, Peng WANG, Lei DONG. A two-stage degradation model and reliability analysis related to degradation of binary load-sharing systems[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2024, 45(7): 229046-229046.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Table 1

Model unknown parameter estimation and model comparison

模型	Log-likelihood	AIC	BIC	参数点估计值
M1	56.812 5	-97.625	-92.513	$β 1 = 3.249 β 2 = 2.266 μ 12 = 14.921 μ 21 = 4.607 σ 1 = 0.073 σ 2 = 0.076 β 22 = 4.550 σ 22 = 0.102$
M2	48.166 3	-84.333	-79.697	$β 1' = 2.644 β 2' = 2.056 μ 12' = 21.406 μ 21' = 5.823 σ 1' = 0.109 σ 2' = 0.081$

Table 1

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Fig.8

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Fig.13

Table 2

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预测剩余寿命/每百万循环次数	剩余寿命真实值/每百万循环次数	相对误差
0.01	0.082 94	0.047 56
0.02	0.075 73	0.088 90
0.03	0.065 96	0.105 56
0.04	0.057 40	0.146 35
0.05	0.045 75	0.147 54
0.06	0.029 69	0.023 21
0.07	0.019 78	0.039 44
0.08	0.008 79	0.037 50

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A two-stage degradation model and reliability analysis related to degradation of binary load-sharing systems

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