Abstract: To further promote the development of model validation and understand the specific implementation steps of model validation, the framework, ideas and general process for model validation utilizing Bayesian method are achieved by the example of model validation thermal challenge problem presented in Sandia National Laboratories. Model validation is not merely a process of assessing the accuracy of a simulation model, but also a process to improve the predictive precision through the model validation results. The basic theories of Bayesian analysis and uncertainty quantification are introduced and several model updating methods are emphasized and compared in model validation. Finally, the Bayesian model updating method is applied to model validation thermal challenge problem, and more accurate prediction results are obtained than those from the initial model. The results demonstrate that the model predictive precision can be significantly improved when utilizing Bayesian model updating method in model validation.

Key words: model validation, uncertainty analysis, uncertainty quantification, thermal challenge problem, Bayesian model updating, prediction