Abstract: The probability that a parachute ground release system works successfully under different ground wind conditions is quantitatively analyzed. Primary factors which contribute to the success of release work are deduced by analyzing the mechanical properties of the entire airdrop system. Based on a dynamic analysis of the parachute system during landing, a numerical model to evaluate the probability of successful release is established. Uniform distribution and Gauss distribution are utilized to obtain the probability of success. Safe ground wind speed and safe design release force are defined as the criteria to determine whether the release succeeds or not. The results show that the probability of successful release increases with the increase of design release force, and decreases with the increase of ground wind speeds within a certain range. This research provides a theoretical method for the design of parachute ground release and reference for airdrop mission decision-making.

Key words: airdrop, parachute ground release, probability of release, landing, parachute