Abstract: A theoretical model is developed to predict the spares requirements for aircraft battle damage. First, a review is made of the damage levels of basic functional items of the aircraft and the effect of damage levels on aircraft existence, and then a summary is reached that the types of spares are the basic functional items which suffer uncritical damage. Second, by analyzing aircraft existent states and the corresponding spares requirement vectors, this article holds that the probability of the spares required in one sortie is the joint probability of damage of basic functional items and aircraft survival. Finally, with Markov chain method, the requirement probabilities of spares for aircraft battle damage are calculated, and the spares requirements for aircraft battle damage are obtained based on binomial distribution. The numerical example shows that the method presented in this article is effective and feasible. The conclusions article could provide criteria for ascertaining the requirements of spares for aircraft battle damage.

Key words: aircraft battle damage, types of spares, Markov chain, probability, requirements