基于蒙特卡罗方法的民用飞机故障风险评估方法

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2017.221126

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve aviation safety and reduce the risk level of parts failure in the process of civil aircraft operation,the individual and fleet risks have been calculated.The key points of individual risk are how to confirm the failure distribution and rate,which turns out that Wei-bull distribution is applicable.According to the failure mechanism of part,the non-detection probability and the conditional probability the detect will leads to an unsafe outcome as well as related injury rate have been listed,in order to determine the risk level.Based on the individual risk,the key points of fleet risk are fleet scale and current flight circles.The number of failure flights has been predicted based on operational data.The risk value has been acquired under different operated situation such as parameter distribution,number of failure flights as well as retirement cycles.The failure time of individual and fleet has been simulated by Monte Carlo method in the case of serration crack in turbine disc of aero-engine.The risk levels of individual and fleet about this part have been analyzed,and the two kinds risk levels have been given at continued airworthiness stage based on operational data.

Key words: civil aircraft, fleet risk, individual risk, Monte Carlo method, cumulative distribution function, failure rate

CLC Number:

V239

GUO Yuanyuan, SUN Youchao, LI Longbiao. Failure risk assessment method of civil aircraft based on Monte Carlo method[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2017, 38(10): 221126-221126.

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Failure risk assessment method of civil aircraft based on Monte Carlo method

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