关键词: 事故模型, 事故推演, 建模, 耦合, 层次化面向对象的Petri网

Abstract: Based on a summary of existing accident models and an analysis of the characteristics of complex systems, a new accident model—accident rehearsal model is presented in this article. The model expounds the development of accidents by analyzing various components of a system, the relationships between them, and the conditions for the emergence of the system. In view of the fact that there is no mature approach to support current accident models based on systems theory, a modeling technique, i.e., hierarchical objectoriented Petri nets (HOOPN), is introduced to work with the accident rehearsal model, which includes the definition of HOOPN，the analysis of the capability of this technique for accident rehearsal modeling, and the modeling process based on HOOPN. Finally, an accident rehearsal model of the aircraft spiral approach process is provide by using HOOPN, and the analysis of this model serves to validate the feasibility of this technique.

Key words: accident model, accident rehearsal, modeling, coupling, hierarchical object-oriented Petri nets