基于贝叶斯网络和共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性分析

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23632

电子电气工程与控制

本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索

前一篇 | 后一篇

基于贝叶斯网络和共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性分析

孔祥芬, 王杰, 张兆民

中国民航大学航空工程学院, 天津 300300

收稿日期:2019-11-04 修回日期:2019-12-21 出版日期:2020-05-15 发布日期:2020-02-06
通讯作者: 孔祥芬 E-mail:xfkong@cauc.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（71902180）；航空科学基金（20170267002）；民航机场群智慧运营重点实验室基金（KLAGIO20180302）

Reliability analysis of aircraft power system based on Bayesian networks and common cause failures

KONG Xiangfen, WANG Jie, ZHANG Zhaomin

School of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2019-11-04 Revised:2019-12-21 Online:2020-05-15 Published:2020-02-06
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(71902180); Aeronautical Science Foundation (20170267002);Civil Aviation Airport Group Smart Operation Key Laboratory Open Fund(KLAGIO20180302)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 飞机电源系统中的冗余设计提升了飞机系统的可靠性，但同时也增加了共因失效发生的概率。为了准确分析飞机电源系统的可靠性，首先，采取α因子模型对共因失效部件的失效率进行分解计算，并利用贝叶斯网络（BN）建立考虑共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性模型。然后，对比分析考虑与不考虑冗余部件之间的共因失效因素时飞机电源系统及其子系统的可靠性。结果表明，考虑冗余部件之间的共因失效因素时，得到的飞机电源系统及其子系统可靠度相对于不考虑冗余部件之间的共因失效因素时较低，更加吻合实际情况。

关键词: 可靠性, 飞机电源系统, 共因失效, 贝叶斯网络, 冗余部件

Abstract: The redundant design in the aircraft power system increases both the reliability of the aircraft system and the probability of common cause failures. To accurately analyze the reliability of the aircraft power system, first, this study adopts the α factor model to decompose the failure rates of the common failure components, and the Bayesian Network (BN) to establish a reliability model of the power system considering the common cause failures. Then, comparative analysis of the reliability of the aircraft power system and its subsystems with and without consideration of common cause failures among redundant components is conducted. The results show a lower reliability of the obtained aircraft power system and its subsystems when the common cause failure factors among redundant components are considered than that without considering these factors, which is more consistent with the actual situation.

Key words: reliability, aircraft power system, common cause failure, Bayesian network, redundant components

中图分类号:

V242.2

孔祥芬, 王杰, 张兆民. 基于贝叶斯网络和共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性分析[J]. 航空学报, 2020, 41(5): 323632-323632.

KONG Xiangfen, WANG Jie, ZHANG Zhaomin. Reliability analysis of aircraft power system based on Bayesian networks and common cause failures[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2020, 41(5): 323632-323632.

参考文献 21

[1]	王莉, 戴泽华, 杨善水, 等. 电气化飞机电力系统智能化设计研究综述[J]. 航空学报, 2019, 40(2):022405. WANG L, DAI Z H, YANG S S, et al. Review of intelligent design of electrified aircraft power system[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2019,40(2):022405(in Chinese).
[2]	SARLIOGLU B, MORRIS C T. More electric aircraft:Review challenges and opportunities for commercial transport aircraft[J]. IEEE Transactions on Transportation Electrification, 2015,1(1):54-64.
[3]	冯正霖.以新发展理念引领新时代民航高质量发展[J].人民论坛,2019(5):6-9. FENG Z L. Leading the high-quality development of civil aviation in the new era with new development concepts[J]. People's Tribune, 2019(5):6-9(in Chinese).
[4]	蔡林, 张玲, 杨善水, 等. 大型飞机供配电系统可靠性评估与分析[J]. 航空学报, 2011, 32(8):1488-1496. CAI L, ZHANG L, YANG S S, et al. Reliability evaluation and analysis of power supply and distribution system for large aircraft[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2011, 32(8):1488-1496(in Chinese).
[5]	XU Q, XU Y, TU P F, et al. Systematic reliability modeling and evaluation for on-board power systems of more electric aircrafts[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2019, 34(4):3264-3273.
[6]	陈源. 基于模糊FMECA方法的飞机供电系统可靠性分析研究[D]. 成都:电子科技大学, 2011:22-41. CHEN Y. Reliability analysis of aircraft power supply system based on fuzzy FMECA method[D]. Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011:22-41(in Chinese).
[7]	吕弘, 袁海文, 张莉, 等. 基于模式重要度的航空电源系统可靠性估计[J]. 航空学报, 2010, 31(3):608-613. LV H, YUAN H W, ZHANG L, et al.Aircraft electrical power system reliability estimation based on pattern importance[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2010, 31(3):608-613(in Chinese).
[8]	王学敏, 谢里阳, 周金宇. 考虑共因失效的系统可靠性模型[J]. 机械工程学报, 2005, 41(1):24-28. WANG X M, XIE L Y, ZHOU J Y. System reliability model considering common cause failure[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2005, 41(1):24-28(in Chinese).
[9]	唐圣金, 郭晓松, 王振业, 等. 基于故障树的多光纤陀螺冗余系统可靠性分析[J]. 中国惯性技术学报, 2013, 21(2):259-263. TANG S J, GUO X S, WANG Z Y, et al. Reliability analysis for redundant system with multiple FOGs based on fault tree analysis method[J]. Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology, 2013, 21(2):259-263(in Chinese).
[10]	尹晓伟, 钱文学, 谢里阳. 基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性共因失效模型[J]. 中国机械工程, 2009,20(1):90-94. YIN X W, QIAN W X, XIE L Y. Common causal failure model of system reliability based on bayesian network[J]. Chinese Mechanical Engineering, 2009, 20(1):90-94(in Chinese).
[11]	李志强, 徐廷学, 安进, 等. 冗余系统共因失效动态贝叶斯网络建模[J]. 仪器仪表学报, 2018, 39(3):190-198. LI Z Q, XU T X, AN J, et al. Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for common cause failure of redundant systems[J]. Journal of Instruments and Instruments, 2018, 39(3):190-198(in Chinese).
[12]	赵峰,刘荣峥,梁丽,等.基于贝叶斯网络融合共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):61-67. ZHAO F, LIU R Z, LIANG L, et al. Reliability analysis of contact network system based on common cause failure of Bayesian network fusion[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2015, 25(5):61-67(in Chinese).
[13]	HAUGE S, HOKSTAD P, HÅBREKKE S, et al. Common cause failures in safety-instrumented Ssystems:Using field experience from the petroleum industry[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, 151(7):34-45.
[14]	ZAHNG M, ZHANG Z J, MOSLEH A, et al.Common cause failure model updating for risk monitoring in nuclear power plants based on alpha factor model[J].Journal of Risk and Reliability,2017,231(3):209-220.
[15]	徐皑冬, 王宏. 基于差异化设计技术的安全仪表系统共因失效分析方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(3):91-96. XU A D, WANG H. Research on common cause failure analysis method of safety instrument system based on differential design technology[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2013, 23(3):91-96(in Chinese).
[16]	IVA B R, MARKO. An extension of multiple greek letter method for common cause failures modelling[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,29(1):144-154.
[17]	MATTHIAS C M T, GERO W, DANA K. A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2014,125:13-21.
[18]	高莺, 王巨汉, 张琦,等. 基于不同参数模型的安全计算机共因失效分数计算及比较分析[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2019, 40(3):137-143. GAO Y, WANG J H, ZHANG Q, et al. Computation and comparative analysis of common cause failure scores of safety computer based on different parameter models[J]. China Railway Science, 2019, 40(3):137-143(in Chinese).
[19]	张连文. 贝叶斯网引论[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2006:34-44. ZHANG L W. Introduction to Bayesian network[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2006:34-44(in Chinese).
[20]	尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.系统可靠性的贝叶斯网络评估方法[J].航空学报,2008,29(6):1482-1489. YIN X W, QIAN W X, XIE L Y.A method for system reliability assessment based on Bayessian network[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2008,29(6):1482-1489(in Chinese).
[21]	沈颂华.航空航天器供电系统[M]. 北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2005:5-6. SHEN S H. Eleltrical power supply system for aerospace vehicles[M].Beijing:Beihang University Press, 2005:5-6(in Chinese).

E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

关于我们

期刊社服务

专业学科

封面文章

友情链接

主管单位：中国科学技术协会主办单位：中国航空学会北京航空航天大学

基于贝叶斯网络和共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of aircraft power system based on Bayesian networks and common cause failures

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献 21

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	龚煜廉, 张建国, 吴志刚, 褚光远, 范晓铎, 黄赢. 主动学习基自适应PC⁃Kriging模型的复合材料结构可靠度算法[J]. 航空学报, 2024, 45(8): 228982-228982.
[2]	张帆, 程伯晗, 王鹏, 董磊. 二元共载系统退化相关的两阶段退化模型及可靠性分析[J]. 航空学报, 2024, 45(7): 229046-229046.
[3]	薛小锋, 赵淼龑, 杜倩宜, 冯蕴雯, 樊俊铃, 焦婷. 基于人员和环境因素定量化的检测可靠性[J]. 航空学报, 2024, 45(6): 228859-228859.
[4]	郑新前, 王钧莹, 黄维娜, 伏宇, 程荣辉, 熊洪洋. 航空发动机不确定性设计体系探讨[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(7): 27099-027099.
[5]	孙本奇, 杨强, 孙志礼, 李树军, 马宏坤, 王若男. 平面约束变胞机构构态切换能力的概率评估模型[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(4): 426843-426843.
[6]	张帆, 孙紫荆, 肖国松, 刘嘉琛, 王鹏. 基于直觉模糊贝叶斯网络的HUD系统多阶段任务可靠性分析[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(4): 226853-226853.
[7]	顾孟奇, 朱家才, 郭万林, 薛松. 可重复使用运载火箭结构疲劳耐久性与可靠性展望[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(23): 628299-628299.
[8]	杨乐昌, 汪晨星. 基于多源异构信息的航空发动机转子参数校准与可靠性分析[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(23): 228575-228575.
[9]	冯蕴雯, 唐家强, 冯成慧, 陈先民, 薛小锋. 基于载荷共享理论的多传力路径耳片可靠性研究[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(20): 228528-228528.
[10]	姜峰, 李华聪, 符江锋, 洪林雄. 基于RBF和主动学习的非概率可靠度求解方法[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(2): 226667-226667.
[11]	冯蕴雯, 林心怡, 薛小锋, 杨祥, 刘佳奇. 高可靠单向爆破的民机防爆结构设计[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(18): 228297-228297.
[12]	郭庆, 关德明. 民机维修任务分析的人因可靠性预测模型[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(16): 228051-228051.
[13]	宋凯, 张弛, 晏晨辉, 宁宁, 樊俊铃, 王荣彪. 基于双参数表征的航空发动机轮盘模型辅助涡流检测可靠性[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(13): 227866-227866.
[14]	员婉莹, 吕震宙. 参数可靠性全局灵敏度高效分析的代理模型法[J]. 航空学报, 2023, 44(12): 227670-227670.
[15]	陈志远, 李璐祎. 参数不确定性下高效的可靠性灵敏度分析方法[J]. 航空学报, 2022, 43(9): 325881-325881.