航空学报 > 2001, Vol. 22 Issue (6): 559-562

基于灰色系统预测直升机航迹的研究

顾晓辉, 王晓鸣, 赵有守   

  1. 南京理工大学机械学院 江苏南京 210094
  • 收稿日期:2000-10-08 修回日期:2001-02-15 出版日期:2001-12-25 发布日期:2001-12-25

PREDICTION OF HELICOPTER TRACKS BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY

GU Xiao-hui, WANG Xiao-ming, ZHAO You-shou   

  1. College of Mechanics, Naijing University of Science & Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
  • Received:2000-10-08 Revised:2001-02-15 Online:2001-12-25 Published:2001-12-25

摘要:

反直升机智能雷对直升机航迹的预测在作战中非常重要,但在数据非常有限的情况下,准确地预测又很困难。提出了用灰色系统理论解决直升机航迹预测问题,建立了灰色系统 GM预测模型和 n次累加残差模型并对GM预测模型进行修正。在每个采样期间内,实时在线建立GM预测模型和残差模型以提高预测精度。通过实例计算能看出用较少的探测数据可以得到较高的预测精度。

关键词: 灰色预测, 航迹, 灰色模型

Abstract:

The prediction of helicopter tracks for anti-helicopter intelligent mine is very important in a battle. However, it is very difficult to get an accurate and reliable prediction when the data is very limited. The paper makes use of the theory of grey systems to predict helicopter tracks, establishing the GM model of grey systems and the cumulative residual error model of \%n\% degrees, then correcting the GM forecast model. In the period of sampling, GM model and residual error model have been established on line to improve prediction precision. The calculation of living examples indicates that higher prediction precision can be obtained with fewer surveying data.

Key words: gr ey forecast, tra ck, gr ey model