Abstract: In this article a probabilistic design system for a gas turbine disk is developed to replace deterministic design methods. The flowchart of the process for probabilistic design is established through investigating the conventional design process to find important design inputs and potential failure modes. A basic frame of probabilistic design involving the design process and design criteria is constructed, in which the probabilistic design criteria are built based on successful conventional design criteria. The probabilistic design procedure is demonstrated by taking the turbine disk design of a certain aeroengine as an example. In contrast to deterministic design, the probabilistic design minimized the weight of the turbine disk while maintaining low failure probability. A probabilistic assessment can quantify risk and thus identify areas of possible conservatism, which proved to be effective and feasible.

Key words: turbine disk, probabilistic design, reliability, mass, low cycle fatigue