基于贝叶斯更新的飞机结构腐蚀可靠度模型

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0477

Abstract

Abstract:

The time-dependent nature in the development of civil aircraft structure corrosion and the limitations of sample collection have brought uncertainty to the distribution form and parameters of structure corrosion data. Therefore, an approach to select a reasonable distribution function and parameter estimation method is presented in this paper based on Bayesian formula. To meet the demands of the dynamic reliability management of aircraft structures in service, the dynamic forecast models are provided of the corrosion failure probability and the reliability of aircraft structures based on the Bayesian updating with the condition of new testing data being input constantly. The nondestructive testing data of floor beam structure corrosion in a civil aircraft are taken as an example, and the results show that the reasonable distribution of corrosion depth exhibits a Weibull distribution with two parameters, and the calculated reliability of the floor beam structure based on Bayesian updated corrosion failure probability is different from that without updating. It indicates that the updated reliability not only considers the priori information of the model parameters, but also uses the current data to update the forecast model timely, which can effectively reduce the uncertainty resulting from the limited number of samples. Therefore, the forecasts are steady, dynamic, and more in line with engineering practice.

Key words: aircraft structure, corrosion, uncertainty, Bayesian updated, reliability

CLC Number:

ZHANG Chunxiao, ZHOU Meiyin, WANG Zhiping. Reliability Model of Aircraft Structure Corrosion Based on Bayesian Updated[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2014, 35(7): 1931-1940.

References

[1] Mu Z T, Chen D H, Zhu Z T, et al. Fatigue crack growth behavior of LD2 aerospace aluminum alloy under corrosion conditions[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2013, 34(3): 574-579. (in Chinese) 穆志韬, 陈定海, 朱做涛, 等. 腐蚀条件下LD2 航空铝合金裂纹扩展规律研究[J]. 航空学报,2013, 34(3): 574-579.

[2] Huang L C, Liu H C, Gu A, et al. Failure and corrosion of coating on aluminum alloy parts used on airplanes serving in coastal environment[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2009, 30(6): 1144-1149. (in Chinese) 黄领才, 刘慧丛, 谷岸, 等. 沿海环境下服役飞机铝合金零件的表面涂层破坏与腐蚀[J]. 航空学报, 2009, 30(6): 1144-1149.

[3] Zhang H W, He Y T, Fan C H, et al. Fatigue life prediction method under alternative corrosion/fatigue process[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2013, 34(5): 1114-1121. (in Chinese) 张海威, 何宇廷, 范超华, 等. 腐蚀/疲劳交替作用下飞机金属材料疲劳寿命计算方法[J]. 航空学报, 2013, 34(5): 1114-1121.

[4] Liu X, Wang J P, Zhu Q X. Aircraft corrosion and protection[J]. China Civil Aviation, 2002, 18(6): 69-70. (in Chinese) 刘洵, 王建平, 朱庆祥. 飞机腐蚀与维护[J]. 中国民用航空, 2002, 18(6): 69-70.

[5] Liu W, Yang H Y, He X F. Evaluation of fatigue lives for civil aircraft structures under corrosive condition[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2004, 30(8): 753-756. (in Chinese) 刘文, 杨洪源, 贺小帆. 腐蚀条件下民机结构疲劳寿命评定方法研究[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2004, 30(8): 753-756.

[6] Chen Q Z, Kang X H,Liu J G, et al. Discussion about military aircraft anti-corrosion and calendar life research[J]. China Surface Engineering, 2010,23(4):1-6. (in Chinese) 陈群志, 康献海, 刘健光, 等. 军用飞机腐蚀防护与日历寿命研究[J]. 中国表面工程, 2010, 23(4): 1-6.

[7] Harlow D G, Wei R P. Probability approach for prediction of corrosion and corrosion fatigue life[J]. AIAA Journal, 1994, 32(10): 2073-2079.

[8] Chen Y L, Yang X H, Qin H Q. Study on corrosion damage distribution law of aircraft structure[J]. Materials Science & Engineering, 2002, 20(3): 378-380. (in Chinese) 陈跃良, 杨晓华, 秦海勤.飞机结构腐蚀损伤分布规律研究[J]. 材料科学与工程, 2002, 20(3): 378-380.

[9] Chen Y L, Lv G Z, Duan C M. A probability model for the corrosion damage of aircraft structure in service environment[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2002, 23(3): 249-251. (in Chinese) 陈跃良, 吕国志, 段成美. 服役条件下飞机结构腐蚀损伤概率模型研究[J]. 航空学报, 2002, 23(3): 249-251.

[10] Zio E, Apostolakis G E. Two methods for the structural assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1996, 54(2): 225-241.

[11] Mao S S. Bayesian statistics[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1999: 12-83. (in Chinese) 茆诗松. 贝叶斯统计[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,1999: 12-83.

[12] Wang J. Performance prediction and reliability management of concrete structures based on information updating. Beijing: School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghai University, 2006. (in Chinese) 王剑. 基于信息更新的混凝土结构性能预测和可靠性管理. 北京: 清华大学土木水利学院, 2006.

[13] Guedes Stares C, Garbatov Y. Reliability of corrosion protected and maintained ship hulls subjected to corrosion and fatigue[J]. Journal of Ship Research, 1999, 43(2): 65-78.

[14] Xue G X, Zhang Z. Reliability analysis of corrosion detection of pipeline in service based on Bayesian approach [J]. Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology, 2010, 36(1): 63-66. (in Chinese) 薛国星, 张峥. 基于贝叶斯检测的在役管道腐蚀可靠性分析[J]. 兰州理工大学学报, 2010, 36(1): 63-66.

[15] Zhang R X, Mahadevan S. Model uncertainty and Bayesian updating in reliability based inspection[J]. Structural Safety, 2000, 22(2): 145-160.

[16] Wang H, Lv G Z, Zhang Y H. The evolution model of aluminum alloy corrosion damage[J]. Acta Aeronoutica et Astronautica Sinica, 2007,28(6):1355-1358. (in Chinese) 王慧, 吕国志, 张有宏. 铝合金腐蚀损伤演化数学模型[J]. 航空学报, 2007, 28(6): 1355-1358.

[17] Hu Y L, Li D, Guo B L. Study on corrosion kinetics of statistical regularity of LY12CZ aluminum alloy profiles and calendar life prediction method [J]. Acta Aeronoutica et Astronautica Sinica, 2000, 21(Sup.): 53-57. (in Chinese) 胡艳玲, 李荻, 郭宝兰. LY12CZ铝合金型材的腐蚀动力学统计规律研究及日历寿命预测方法探讨[J]. 航空学报, 2000, 21(增刊): 53-57.

[18] Yang M C, Nie H. Advanced algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of three parameters Weibull distribution[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2007, 39(1): 22-25. (in Chinese) 杨谋存, 聂宏. 三参数Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计数值解法[J]. 南京航空航天大学学报, 2007, 39(1): 22-25.

[19] Xu A C. Bayesian statistical analysis on shielding data. Shanghai: School of Finance and Statistics, East China Normal University, 2011. (in Chinese) 徐安察. 屏蔽数据的贝叶斯统计分析. 上海: 华东师范大学金融与统计学院, 2011.

[20] He F X, Zhang C L. Application and calculation cases of Monte Carlo method[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University, 2005, 32(3): 110-112. (in Chinese) 何凤霞, 张翠莲. 蒙特卡罗方法的应用及算例[J]. 华北电力大学学报, 2005, 32(3): 110-112.

[21] Coles S G, Powell E A. Bayesian methods in extreme value modelling: a review and new developments[J]. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 1996, 64(1): 119-136.

[22] Li F, Shi Y M, Jing Y. Bayesian estimation for environmental factor of two parameters of Weibull distribution[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2008,30(1):186-189. (in Chinese) 李凤, 师义民, 荆源. 两参数Weibull分布环境因子的Bayes估计[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2008, 30(1): 186-189.

[23] Su W G, Mu Z T, Liu T, et al. Probability model of prediction of corrosion fatigue life based on damage inspection[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering, 2009, 6(5): 33-38. (in Chinese) 苏维国, 穆志韬, 刘涛, 等. 基于损伤检测的腐蚀疲劳寿命预测概率模型[J]. 装备环境工程, 2009, 6(5): 33-38.

Reliability Model of Aircraft Structure Corrosion Based on Bayesian Updated

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	Feng JIANG, Huacong LI, Jiangfeng FU, Linxiong HONG. A RBF and active learning combined method for structural non-probabilistic reliability analysis [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2023, 44(2): 226667-226667.
[2]	CHEN Zhiyuan, LI Luyi. Efficient methods for reliability sensitivity analysis of inputs with distribution parameter uncertainty [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(9): 325881-325881.
[3]	XIAHOU Tangfan, CHEN Jiangtao, SHAO Zhidong, WU Xiaojun, LIU Yu. Model validation metrics for CFD numerical simulation under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(8): 25716-025716.
[4]	LI Xiaoyang, TAO Zhao, ZHANG Wei. Reliability modelling for fatigue based on uncertain differential equation [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(8): 225820-225820.
[5]	LUO Jiaqi, FU Wenhao, ZENG Xian, XIA Zhiheng. Uncertainty impact of Reynolds number on flow losses of high-lift low-pressure turbine cascade [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(7): 125427-125427.
[6]	WANG Ding, YIN Jiexin, GAO Lu, YANG Bin. A novel method for TDOA localization in presence of synchronization clock bias and sensor position uncertainty [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(7): 325405-325405.
[7]	WANG Binwen, NIE Xiaohua, WAN Chunhua, WU Cunli. Research and application of virtual test technology for static strength of full scale aircraft structure [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(6): 526273-526273.
[8]	HE Yong, WANG Hong, LI Jing, QI Yankun. Joint decision making for condition-based maintenance and spare parts ordering of components based on vibration monitoring [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(5): 225304-225304.
[9]	LI Jinsheng, ZHUANG Ling, SONG Jiahong, LU Baogang, SU Wei, WU Qiao. Aircraft aerodynamic characteristic correction framework for engineering data [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(5): 125157-125157.
[10]	HU Xianliang, QIAO Hongchao, ZHAO Jibin, LU Ying, WU Jiajun, YANG Yuqi. Effect of laser shock wave on thermal corrosion resistance of single crystal alloy [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(4): 525591-525591.
[11]	WANG Tianshuai, HE Xiaofan, WANG Jinyu, LI Yuhai. Estimation method for DFR value of DED-TA15 titanium alloy based on bimodal lognormal distribution [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(3): 225013-225013.
[12]	LEI Shiying, SUN Jianzhong, LIU He. Cumulative damage index model and service reliability evaluation of turbine blade [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(3): 225064-225064.
[13]	LI Ning, LIU Zhiyong, WANG Na, YANG Lei. Simulation on antenna servo control system based on DUEA [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(2): 324986-324986.
[14]	ZHOU Chen, SHANG Bolin, SONG Bifeng, KE Erqin, WANG Yaozu. Contribution evaluation of aviation armament system-of-systems based on operation loop [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(2): 224958-224958.
[15]	HE Xiaofan, ZHU Junxian. Advances in durability severe spectrum: Development and application for military aircraft structures [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(12): 25070-025070.