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ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1380-1384.

• 固体力学与飞行器设计 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Application of Hierarchical Partial Least Squares Regression to Development Cost Prediction of Aircraft

Wang Liyuan, Guo Jilian, Zhang Hengxi   

  1. Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University
  • Received:2008-05-28 Revised:2008-07-28 Online:2009-08-25 Published:2009-08-25
  • Contact: Wang Liyuan

Abstract: In the analysis of the development cost of an aircraft there are usually only small samples with a large number of cost drive factors. In view of this fact and considering the advantages of hierarchical partial least squares regression (Hi-PLS) in building a regressive model in the condition of a large number of variables, an application of Hi-PLS to aircraft development cost prediction is proposed using the development cost prediction of a fighter plane fuselage as an example. After the cost drive factors of the fighter plane fuselage development cost are grouped, Hi-PLS is applied to the regress of the grouped cost drive factors, and a fuselage development cost prediction model is established. The calculated results in the example show that Hi-PLS model can reflect satisfactorily the correlation between fuselage development cost and performance parameters of a military aircraft.

Key words: aircraft, development cost, hierarchical partial least squares regression, cost prediction model, cost drive factor

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