Abstract: Aimed at the character istics of the risk ELC of aeronautic weapons, the paper compared the applicabilitiesof r isk evaluation met hods, and then put forward different evaluation methods for different stages of ELC. Based ont he Grey System Theory, the paper put forth an improved evaluation method, namely, multi-hierarchy grey evaluation method, which is of merits of small sample number and high accur acy, and established an evaluation model withcalculating example.

Key words: aeronautic weapon, risk evaluation method, grey evaluation model, entire life cycle