航空学报 > 2011, Vol. 32 Issue (7): 1302-1308   doi: CNKI:11-1929/V.20110304.1634.000

基于贯序正则极端学习机的时间序列预测及其应用

张弦, 王宏力   

  1. 第二炮兵工程学院 自动控制工程系, 陕西 西安 710025
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-08 修回日期:2010-12-23 出版日期:2011-07-25 发布日期:2011-07-23
  • 作者简介:张弦(1982- ) 男, 博士研究生。 主要研究方向: 工业过程的故障监控。 Tel: 029-84743239 E-mail: sltecas@163.com 王宏力(1965- ) 男, 博士, 教授。 主要研究方向: 控制系统的故障检测与诊断。 Tel: 029-84743239 E-mail: wanghl@163.com

Time Series Prediction Based on Sequential Regularized Extreme Learning Machine and Its Application

ZHANG Xian, WANG Hongli   

  1. Department of Automatic Control Engineering, The Second Artillery Engineering College, Xi’an 710025, China
  • Received:2010-10-08 Revised:2010-12-23 Online:2011-07-25 Published:2011-07-23

摘要: 为实现对液压泵特征参数的在线预测,提出一种贯序正则极端学习机(SRELM),并研究了基于SRELM的预测方法。SRELM根据结构风险最小化原理实现网络训练,其网络权值可随新样本的逐次加入而递推求解,具有泛化能力强与训练速度快的优点,因此适于特征参数的在线预测。基于SRELM的预测方法利用特征参数训练SRELM模型,以逐次增加新数据的方式对SRELM模型进行在线训练,并利用训练后的SRELM模型对未来时刻的特征参数进行外推预测。液压泵特征参数预测实例表明,基于SRELM的特征参数预测方法具有预测精度高与计算效率高的优点,其综合性能优于基于传统迭代式神经网络的预测方法与基于支持向量机的预测方法。

关键词: 神经网络, 正则极端学习机, 特征参数预测, 时间序列分析, 视情维修

Abstract: In order to accurately predict the feature parameters of a hydraulic pump, a new algorithm called sequential regularized extreme learning machine (SRELM) is proposed and a prediction method based on SRELM is studied. On the basis of structural risk minimization theory, SRELM balances the empirical risk and structural risk to enhance the generalization performance of conventional extreme learning machine (ELM). In comparison with the regularized extreme learning machine (RELM), SRELM can complete the training procedure recursively without retraining when there are sequential training samples. Thus, SRELM is suitable for on-line feature parameter prediction. In the SRELM-based prediction method, feature parameters of the hydraulic pump are used to train an SRELM model. The latest feature parameter is adopted iteratively to update the prediction model and then the trained prediction model is used to predict future feature parameters. Experiments on the hydraulic pump feature parameter prediction indicate that the SRELM-based prediction method has better performance in prediction accuracy and computational cost in comparison with conventional neural-network-based prediction and support-vector-machine-based prediction.

Key words: neural networks, regularized extreme learning machine, feature parameter prediction, time series analysis, condition-based maintenance

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