高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0316

Abstract

Abstract:

Different risks associated with decision party and system developer are modeled and analyzed aiming at the high risk characteristics of hypersonic vehicle development.Based upon the inherent probabilistic risks of system design and critical technologies,a generic test and verification process is adopted to calculate the probabilities of accepting unqualified systems by the decision party,or over-testing low risk systems or technologies by the developer.The relation between decision risk and developer's risk is studied,and then a system engineering approach for balancing the risks as well as optimizing the development cycle is proposed based on probability calculation.

Key words: hypersonic vehicle, engineering development, developer's risk, decision risk, risk probability, systems engineering optimization

CLC Number:

SHEN Zuojun, LIU Qing, XIAO Jiaping. Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(1): 317-323.

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Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering

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