随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的导弹部件寿命预测

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0192

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of predicting the lifetime of a type of missile component, a prediction method based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks is proposed. The product has two failure modes which are degradation failure and traumatic failure. Some stochastic processes, including Wiener, Gamma, and Inverse Gaussian, are adopted to fit the degradation data of performance indexes, and Copula functions are then utilized to model the dependent degradation failure. The shocks of random environmental stresses are used to explain the mechanism of traumatic failure, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process is applied to model the traumatic failure. Thus, a lifetime prediction model is set up based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure. An application example validates that the proposed method, which can model the failure mechanism of the missile component, possesses higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods, and are applicable in engineering.

Key words: lifetime prediction, multiple parameters correlative degrading, traumatic failure, Copula function, non-homogeneous Poisson process

CLC Number:

WANG Haowei, TENG Ke'nan, LI Junliang. Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(11): 3404-3412.

References

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Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses

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[1]	WANG Haowei, XI Wenjun, FENG Yuguang. Remaining life prediction based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure for missiles [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(4): 1240-1248.
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