航空学报 > 2023, Vol. 44 Issue (10): 327452-327452   doi: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2022.27452

基于概率滑行时间的航空器离场推出柔性控制

张颖1,2, 黎晓英2,3, 尹嘉男2,3(), 周笑桐2,3   

  1. 1.南京航空航天大学 通用航空与飞行学院,南京 210016
    2.国家空管飞行流量管理技术重点实验室,南京 210016
    3.南京航空航天大学 民航学院,南京 210016
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-16 修回日期:2022-05-31 接受日期:2022-08-01 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2022-08-17
  • 通讯作者: 尹嘉男 E-mail:j.yin@nuaa.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2021YFB1600500);国家自然科学基金(52002178);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20190416)

Flexible control of aircraft departure pushback time based on probabilistic taxiing time

Ying ZHANG1,2, Xiaoying LI2,3, Jianan YIN2,3(), Xiaotong ZHOU2,3   

  1. 1.College of General Aviation and Flight,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China
    2.National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Flow Management,Nanjing 210016,China
    3.College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China
  • Received:2022-05-16 Revised:2022-05-31 Accepted:2022-08-01 Online:2023-05-25 Published:2022-08-17
  • Contact: Jianan YIN E-mail:j.yin@nuaa.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFB1600500);National Natural Science Foundation of China(52002178);Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20190416)

摘要:

航班离场过程动态多变且高度随机,滑出时间不确定性导致推出时间难以科学配置。为此,研究基于概率滑行时间的航空器离场推出柔性控制问题。首先,采用随机森林回归和核密度估计方法,建立了基于机器学习的概率滑行时间预测模型、超参数调节策略及概率预测性能评价指标体系;然后,引入固定缓冲区概念,提出了离场航空器“推出时刻”柔性控制方法,明确了缓冲区长度对准时到达跑道头概率的作用特性;最后,应用随机规划中的机会约束理论,提出了离场航空器“推出时隙”柔性控制方法,设计了满足机会约束的可行推出时间范围界定规则。实验结果表明:所提方法可对离场航空器概率滑行时间进行科学预测,有效实现传统推出时间刚性控制向多视角柔性控制的灵活转化,可为增强机场离场管制的可预测性和灵活性提供理论方法支撑。

关键词: 离场推出控制, 滑行时间预测, 滑行缓冲时间, 随机森林回归, 概率密度函数, 核密度估计, 机会约束条件

Abstract:

The flight departure process is dynamic, changeful and highly random. The uncertainty of the taxi-out time makes it difficult to scientifically allocate the pushback time. In this paper, the problem of flexible control of aircraft pushback time is studied based on probabilistic distribution of taxiing time. Firstly, a machine learning-based probabilistic distribution of taxiing time prediction model, a hyper parameter tuning strategy and a probabilistic prediction performance evaluation indicator system are established using random forests regression together with the kernel density estimation. Then, the concept of “buffer” is introduced, and a flexible control method of “pushback time” for departure flight is proposed. The effect of buffer size on the probability of reaching the runway head on time is clarified. Finally, by applying the chance-constrained theory of the stochastic programming, a flexible control method for the “pushback slot” of the departure flight is proposed, and the definition rule for the feasible pushback time range that satisfies change constraints is designed. Experimental results show that the probabilistic taxiing time of the departure flight can be predicted scientifically with the proposed prediction method, and flexible transformation from traditional rigid control to multi-view flexible control of the pushback time is then realized. Our study can provide support for enhancing the predictability and flexibility of airport departure control.

Key words: departure/pushback time control, taxiing time prediction, taxiing buffer time, random forest regression, probability density function, kernel density estimation, chance-constrained condition

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