关键词: 可靠性分析, 航空电源系统, 模式重要度, 蒙特卡罗方法, 复杂系统

Abstract: Starting from an analysis of the structural characteristics of a typical aircraft electrical power system, this article propose a reliability estimation model of an aircraft electrical power system based on pattern importance to satisfy the demands for reliability analysis. Monte Carlo methods are used for analyzing the subsystem reliability in accordance with the subsystem components. According to the components pattern importance in subsystems, reliability estimation models of subsystems, parallel systems and the total system are constructed. The advantages of the Monte Carlo methods and the system structure characteristics are combined in the algorithm. The method not only realize the reliability analysis of a complex aircraft electrical power system, but also overcome the low efficiency of Monte Carlo analysis. The reliability results of two aircraft electrical power systems with the proposed method and the Monte Carlo method are compared, and the result shows the method is feasible and effective.

Key words: reliability analysis, aircraft electrical power system, pattern importance, Monte Carlo methods, complex system