航空学报 > 2017, Vol. 38 Issue (2): 320258-320272   doi: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0266

装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理方法

吴诗辉1, 解江1, 刘晓东1, 贺波1, 闫宝会2, 郭亚坤3   

  1. 1. 空军工程大学 装备管理与安全工程学院, 西安 710051;
    2. 解放军93705部队修理厂, 遵化 064200;
    3. 解放军95876部队, 山丹 734100
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-24 修回日期:2016-10-08 出版日期:2017-02-15 发布日期:2016-10-14
  • 通讯作者: 吴诗辉,E-mail:wu_s_h@163.com E-mail:wu_s_h@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(61601501);陕西省自然科学基金(2014JM2-6095)

Method of fuzzy earned value management for weapon equipment development project

WU Shihui1, XIE Jiang1, LIU Xiaodong1, HE Bo1, YAN Baohui2, GUO Yakun3   

  1. 1. Equipment Management and Safety Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051, China;
    2. Repair Factory, No. 93705 Unit of PLA, Zunhua 064200, China;
    3. No. 95876 Unit of PLA, Shandan 734100, China
  • Received:2016-03-24 Revised:2016-10-08 Online:2017-02-15 Published:2016-10-14
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China (61601501); Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (2014JM2-6095)

摘要:

由于装备研制项目广泛存在着技术风险,其预算成本难以用确定数描述,而现有挣值管理技术通常用确定数描述项目费用基线,忽视了项目的技术风险因素。为此,将技术风险引入挣值管理(EVM)方法,提出了一种装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理(FEVM)改进方法。该方法充分考虑了装备研制中的技术风险问题,利用技术成熟度(TRL)对项目计划成本进行估算,在此基础上,利用模糊数学理论,给出了一种基于可能度的高风险项目的成本和进度的模糊评价标准,并对项目的完工成本(ECC)和完工时间(ECT)进行了模糊预测。最后,通过案例对文中的方法进行了阐述。该方法针对装备研制项目技术风险大的特点,进一步拓展了挣值管理的适用性,对于决策者控制风险、保证项目的费用和进度具有一定指导意义和参考价值。

关键词: 模糊挣值管理, 技术成熟度, 模糊数, 可能度, 费用修正因子

Abstract:

Since technology risk exists widely in the weapon equipment development project, it is better to describe the budget as fuzzy number. However, technology risk is neglected in the current earned value management (EVM), which often builds the baseline of the budget with crisp numbers. Therefore, we introduce technology risk to EVM, and propose an improved method of fuzzy earned value management (FEVM) for the weapon development project. The proposed FEVM fully considers technology risk during the project development, and applies the technology readiness level (TRL) concept to estimate the budgeted cost. By utilizing fuzzy theory, the fuzzy assessment standard based on degree of possibility for the cost and schedule of high risk project is given, as well as fuzzy prediction of the estimate completion cost (ECC) and estimate completion time (ECT). The proposed method is illustrated through an example. The proposed method extends the applicability of the EV techniques for the weapon equipment development project with technology risks, and can better help decision-makers to control risks and bring cost and schedule back to the baseline.

Key words: fuzzy earned value management, technology readiness level, fuzzy number, possibility degree, cost correction factors

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