随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的导弹部件寿命预测

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0192

固体力学与飞行器总体设计

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随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的导弹部件寿命预测

王浩伟, 滕克难, 李军亮

海军航空工程学院, 烟台 264001

收稿日期:2016-01-08 修回日期:2016-06-14 出版日期:2016-11-15 发布日期:2016-06-20
通讯作者: 王浩伟,男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:装备可靠性评估与寿命预测,加速试验技术。Tel:0535-6635477,E-mail:13705355730@139.com E-mail:13705355730@139.com
作者简介:王浩伟,男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:装备可靠性评估与寿命预测,加速试验技术。Tel:0535-6635477,E-mail:13705355730@139.com;滕克难,男,博士,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:导弹延寿理论与技术。E-mail:wyg2010123@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（51605487）；中国博士后科学基金（2016M592965）；山东省自然科学基金（ZR2016FQ03）

Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses

WANG Haowei, TENG Ke'nan, LI Junliang

Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, China

Received:2016-01-08 Revised:2016-06-14 Online:2016-11-15 Published:2016-06-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (51605487); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M592965); Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation (ZR2016FQ03)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了解决某型导弹部件的贮存寿命预测问题，提出了一种随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的寿命预测方法。针对产品存在退化失效与突发失效两种失效模式，利用Wiener、Gamma及Inverse Gaussian等随机过程模型拟合各性能参数的退化数据，并采用Copula函数进行相关性退化失效建模；利用随机环境应力冲击解释突发失效的机理，并采用非均匀泊松过程对突发失效建模；进而建立退化失效与突发失效竞争的贮存寿命预测模型。实例应用说明所提方法能够反映出导弹部件的失效规律，比传统预测方法具有更高的预测准确性，具有较好的工程应用价值。

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of predicting the lifetime of a type of missile component, a prediction method based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks is proposed. The product has two failure modes which are degradation failure and traumatic failure. Some stochastic processes, including Wiener, Gamma, and Inverse Gaussian, are adopted to fit the degradation data of performance indexes, and Copula functions are then utilized to model the dependent degradation failure. The shocks of random environmental stresses are used to explain the mechanism of traumatic failure, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process is applied to model the traumatic failure. Thus, a lifetime prediction model is set up based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure. An application example validates that the proposed method, which can model the failure mechanism of the missile component, possesses higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods, and are applicable in engineering.

Key words: lifetime prediction, multiple parameters correlative degrading, traumatic failure, Copula function, non-homogeneous Poisson process

中图分类号:

王浩伟, 滕克难, 李军亮. 随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的导弹部件寿命预测[J]. 航空学报, 2016, 37(11): 3404-3412.

WANG Haowei, TENG Ke'nan, LI Junliang. Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(11): 3404-3412.

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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主管单位：中国科学技术协会主办单位：中国航空学会北京航空航天大学

随机环境应力冲击下基于多参数相关退化的导弹部件寿命预测

Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses

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