基于多元极值Copula的尾流飞行风险概率评估

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0361

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of increasing wake vortex problems, risk probabilities in the situation of near-ground wake encounter are evaluated using complex human-machine-environment theory and multivariate extreme value theory. First, we extract extreme parameters through flight simulation based on Monte Carlo method, and verify the one-dimensional extreme parameters meet generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution; Second, we propose the double parameter & adaptive variable weight (DPAVW) Copula model for two-dimensional extreme parameters, then use ARPSO (Adaptive Range Particle Swarm Optimization) algorithm to identify unknown parameters of the one-dimensional and two-dimensional objective function, and the results of fitting test show DPAVW Copula model has higher accuracy than the other Copula models; Third, flight risk probability in each corresponding grid node is evaluated on the basis of using Copula model to describe all the extreme values in three-dimensional wake space, and then 2D and 3D visual maps of risk probability are built. The proposed methods are effective complements to the aircraft system safety assessment theory, and they have a certain reference value for research directions such as wake navigation control, wake risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement and environmental risks visualization. Moreover, they are also suitable for comparative analysis of flight risk probabilities under different circumstances.

Key words: wake encounter situation, Monte Carlo methods, flight risk probability, multivariate extreme value theory, Copula model, risk visualization

CLC Number:

V328
TP391.9

XUE Yuan, XU Haojun, ZHU Hequan, SHENG Juanjuan. Flight Risk Probability Evaluation in Wakes Based on Multivariate Extremum Copula[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2014, 35(3): 714-726.

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Flight Risk Probability Evaluation in Wakes Based on Multivariate Extremum Copula

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