结冰条件下人-机-环系统的飞行风险概率

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0086

Abstract

Abstract:

The quantitative flight risk probability under icing conditions is set as the research object. Based on Monte Carlo flight simulation experiment, coupling characteristics of pilot-aircraft-environment system after icing are studied, and the extreme flight parameters are extracted. The judgement conditions for flight risk are given. And statistical properties of the extreme samples are analyzed. The fact that extreme flight parameters have heavy tail distribution characteristics is verified. Identification results indicate that generalized extreme value model can best describe the distribution characteristics of relative velocity and angle of attack. In order to describe the influence level of each two-dimensional parameter on the correlations, a new Copula model that has two changeable weights is proposed; identification result shows that this new Copula model can pass the hypothesis testing with high accuracy. Correlation analysis results reveal that relative velocity and angle of attack would both show up extreme values with greater probability. Flight risk probabilities under different icing levels are calculated based on Copula distribution model with two-dimensional extreme values. The nonlinear growth trend of flight risk is also discussed.

Key words: Monte Carlo simulation, icing conditions, pilot-aircraft-environment system, flight risk, extreme value distribution, Copula model

CLC Number:

V212
X949

XUE Yuan, XU Haojun, HU Mengquan. Flight risk probability of pilot-aircraft-environment system under icing conditions[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(11): 3328-3339.

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Flight risk probability of pilot-aircraft-environment system under icing conditions

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