复合材料飞机电气回路网物理-概率耦合可靠性评估

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2026.33326

Abstract

Abstract:

To address the state-space explosion and probability resource mismatch caused by the large node scale of the composite aircraft Electrical Return Network （ERN）， a reliability assessment method combining topological screening and probability guidance is proposed. Based on the percolation theory and the Molloy-Reed criterion， a truncation boundary is constructed to identify and eliminate physically disconnected states through network degree-moment characteristics. Furthermore， a probability-guided model is established by integrating dynamic risk weights and a posterior consequence truncation mechanism， which guides the Monte Carlo sampling to focus on high-risk failure regions. The results of the 82-node primary case and the 29-node comparison network show that the proposed method reduces computational overhead while ensuring assessment accuracy. Specifically， in the 82-node primary case， the number of evaluations is reduced by 96.25% and the computational efficiency is improved by 18.25 times compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method， demonstrating good applicability across different system scales. In addition， the sensitivity analysis of heterogeneous component life parameters indicates that the degradation characteristics of different component types have different effects on the degradation process of system connectivity reliability. The proposed method can provide a feasible assessment framework for the full-life-cycle connectivity reliability analysis of the composite aircraft ERN.

Key words: composite aircraft, electrical return network, Survival Signature, percolation theory, dynamic risk weight

CLC Number:

V242

Nyu’e XIAO, Qi CHEN, Kenian WANG, Boyang LI. Physics-probability coupled reliability assessment of electrical return network in composite aircraft[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2026, 47(17): 233326.

Figures/Tables 18

Table 1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 2

Distribution parameters of high-reliability components

类别	名称	数量	分布类型	形状参数 $β$	尺度参数 $η$ /飞行小时
组件1	线缆	48	威布尔	1.3	2.2×10⁶
组件2	搭接片及接线端子	22	威布尔	1.8	4.5×10⁵
组件3	柔性接头	10	威布尔	2.5	1.4×10⁵

Table 2

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

Fig.8

Table 3

Performance comparison of different methods for 82-node network

方法	计算复杂度	耗时/s	评估次数	可靠度RMSE	可靠度MAE
蒙特卡洛法	$O Ω + Ω N m a x \| V \| + \| E \|$	342.01	15 313 030	1.96×10^-3	1.48×10^-4
渗流剪枝法	$O Ω + Ω e f f N m a x \| V \| + \| E \|$	270.61	13 290 782	4.82×10^-3	2.35×10^-3
熵驱动蒙特卡洛法	$O Ω + \| V \| + \| E \| ∑ l ∈ Ω N e n t (l)$	89.56	3 268 920	2.12×10⁻³	9.25×10⁻⁴
双层筛选法	$O Ω + (\| V \| + \| E \|) ∑ l ∈ Ω e f f N a c t u a l (l)$	18.74	574 336	1.31×10^-3	7.48×10^-4

Table 3

Fig.9

Fig.10

Table 4

Table 5

Fig.11

Fig.12

Fig.13

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类型	ERN主要组成	失效描述
结构组件	走线槽	主要起物理防护和布线路径引导作用，不参与导电，视为不失效。
	滑轨	提供结构支撑与固定功能，不参与电气回路传导，视为不失效。
	横梁	属于主结构承力件，金属连续性完好，视为不失效。
高可靠性组件	搭接片及接线端子	在服役过程中受潮湿、高频振动与热循环影响，接触界面产生氧化膜或磨损，导致接触电阻逐步升高，最终可能出现接触不稳定或断路失效。
	线缆	受长期机械应变、热应力及电流负载作用，绝缘层老化、导体断裂或屏蔽层腐蚀可能导致回路开路、短路或接地不良等失效形式。
	柔性接头	导电桥接单元，易因机械疲劳、应力集中、湿热电化学腐蚀，引发导体断裂、压接松动或接触电阻增大，导致回路导通性能退化。

方法	耗时/s	评估次数	可靠度 RMSE	可靠度 MAE
蒙特卡洛法	4.96	301 556	3.07×10^-3	1.87×10^-4
渗流剪枝法	3.61	239 770	7.90×10^-3	5.35×10^-3
熵驱动蒙特卡洛法	3.86	242 297	2.56×10⁻³	1.51×10⁻⁴
双层筛选法	0.35	17 826	2.47×10^-3	1.58×10^-4

部件类型	尺度参数因子	尺度参数值/fh	R=0.99对应时间/fh	R=0.95对应时间/fh	R=0.90对应时间/fh
线缆	0.8	1.76×10⁶	87 282	103 670	113 325
线缆	1.0	2.20×10⁶	87 405	103 725	113 433
线缆	1.2	2.64×10⁶	87 490	103 743	113 490
搭接片及接线端子	0.8	3.60×10⁵	86 544	103 511	113 127
搭接片及接线端子	1.0	4.50×10⁵	87 405	103 610	113 430
搭接片及接线端子	1.2	5.40×10⁵	87 887	103 661	113 771
柔性接头	0.8	1.12×10⁵	70 448	80 863	90 604
柔性接头	1.0	1.40×10⁵	87 405	103 723	113 430
柔性接头	1.2	1.68×10⁵	103 991

Physics-probability coupled reliability assessment of electrical return network in composite aircraft

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[1]	Zhangang YANG, Yuhao WEI, Juan YANG. Electrical characteristics analysis of composite aircraft electrical structure network system [J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2025, 46(16): 331685-331685.
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[3]	ZENG Dong;YAN Ying;LIU Bing-shan;QIAN Wei. Design of Low-Velocity Wing Tunnel Flutter Model of Aircraft Composite Structure [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2006, 27(2): 232-235.
[4]	Shen Zhen;Tang Xiaodong;Chen Puhui. DAMAGE TOLERANCE AND DURABILITY DESIGN OF COMPOSITE AIRCRAFT STRUCTURES [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 1991, 12(12): 620-622.