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ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1240-1248.doi: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0224

• Solid Mechanics and Vehicle Conceptual Design • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Remaining life prediction based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure for missiles

WANG Haowei, XI Wenjun, FENG Yuguang   

  1. Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264000, China
  • Received:2015-05-11 Revised:2015-08-10 Online:2016-04-15 Published:2015-08-18
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China (61273058)

Abstract:

In order to improve the accuracy of remaining life prediction for missiles, a prediction method, which is based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure, with the comprehensive utilization of the degradation data and failure time data of missile, is proposed. A condition space model is used to evaluate the degradation rate of the whole missile and then Gamma process is utilized to establish the degradation failure model. Assuming that the probability of traumatic failure depends on the degradation rate of the whole missile, Weibull distribution is used to establish the traumatic failure model. Finally the reliability model based on competing risks is set up. The application to a case validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. This study is of engineering value for accurately predicting the remaining life of missiles and performing condition-based maintenance.

Key words: remaining life, degradation failure, traumatic failure, competing mode, condition space model

CLC Number: