两种基于方差的全局灵敏度分析W指标改进算法

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0090

Abstract

Abstract:

In the global sensitivity analysis (SA), the variance-based sensitivity indices, such as Sobol's indices and W-indices, are used widely. Sobol's indices estimate the average variation of model output when input variables are fixed in their points. W-indices measure the average reduction of model output if input variables are reduced in their distributions. Compared with Sobol's indices, W-indices include more information. The double loop repeated set Monte Carlo (DLRS MC) and double loop single set Monte Carlo (DLSS MC) are two traditional methods, but these available methods for solving W-indices are still defective. In order to calculate W-indices efficiently, two new methods are presented. They are advanced Monte Carlo simulation (AMCS) and sparse grid integration (SGI)-based method. The AMCS only needs one set of samples to estimate all W-indices. Since screening method is used to estimate the variance in the conditional interval, and the count error induced by taking an integer in DLSS MC can be avoided, the accuracy of AMCS is higher than that of DLSS MC. The SGI-based method estimates W-indices by evaluating threefold statistic moment by SGI, in which the efficiency of the SGI is inherited. Finally, two numerical examples and an engineering example are employed to demonstrate the reasonability and efficiency of the presented methods.

Key words: global sensitivity analysis, Sobol's indices, W-indices, advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, sparse grid integration

CLC Number:

GONG Xiangrui, LYU Zhenzhou, ZUO Jianwei. Two improved methods for variance-based global sensitivity analysis' W-indices[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016, 37(6): 1888-1898.

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Two improved methods for variance-based global sensitivity analysis' W-indices

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