撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0175

Abstract

Abstract:

Ballistic limit equations are the key technology foundation of spacecraft impact risk assessment from space debris. There is a variety of formulations in describing the predictive indicators about their predictive ability, which often causes confusion in selecting ballistic limit equations in accordance with the predictive indicators. By analyzing the concepts of the indicators, such as correctly predicted rates (including the correctly predicted rates of non-failure, failure, totality and safety) which are based on predicted probability, and prediction errors (including absolute and relative errors) which are based on predicted diameter deviation, the analytical expressions of the indicators are initially standardized, and the properties, value range and relationship between them are expounded, too. Accordingly, keeping the honeycomb sandwich panel structure as the study object and basing on 131 failure/non-failure impact physical experimental case data(from reference), the variation of each predictive indicator in the coefficient space of the ballistic limit equation is further elaborated. The results show that the transitions of the correctly predicted rate indicators are stepped, but the transitions of the prediction error indicators are smooth in the coefficient space.

Key words: space debris, ballistic limit equation, correctly predicted rate, prediction error, honeycomb sandwich panel, coefficient space

CLC Number:

V423.4⁺3

JIA Guanghui, OUYANG Zhijiang, JIANG Hui. Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations’ Predictive Indicators[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2013, 34(10): 2364-2371.

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Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations’ Predictive Indicators

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