撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0175

固体力学与飞行器总体设计

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撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例

贾光辉, 欧阳智江, 蒋辉

北京航空航天大学宇航学院, 北京 100191

收稿日期:2013-01-04 修回日期:2013-03-14 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-06-04
通讯作者: 贾光辉,Tel.: 010-82339067 E-mail: jiaguanghui@buaa.edu.cn E-mail:jiaguanghui@buaa.edu.cn
作者简介:贾光辉男, 博士, 副教授。主要研究方向: 飞行器结构分析与撞击动力学响应。 Tel: 010-82339067 E-mail: jiaguanghui@buaa.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家空间碎片专题项目(K020110-1/3/6)

Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations’ Predictive Indicators

JIA Guanghui, OUYANG Zhijiang, JIANG Hui

School of Astronautics, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

Received:2013-01-04 Revised:2013-03-14 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-06-04
Supported by:
National Space Debris Thematic Project of China (K020110-1/3/6)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

撞击极限方程是空间碎片撞击航天器风险评估的关键技术基础,描述其预测能力的预测指标有多种提法,这给依据预测指标进行撞击极限方程选择时带来较大困惑。通过对以预测概率为基础的预测正确率(包括未失效、失效、总体和安全预测正确率)和以预测直径偏差为基础的预测误差(包括绝对和相对误差)等指标的概念表述,初步规范了各指标的解析表达式,阐述了其性质、取值范围、相互关系等问题。据此,以蜂窝夹层板结构为研究对象,基于国外的131个撞击失效/未失效物理实验数据,对各预测指标在撞击极限方程系数空间上的变化特征作了进一步阐述。结果表明,预测正确率指标在系数空间跳跃变化,而预测误差指标则光滑过渡。

关键词: 空间碎片, 撞击极限方程, 预测正确率, 预测误差, 蜂窝夹层板, 系数空间

Abstract:

Ballistic limit equations are the key technology foundation of spacecraft impact risk assessment from space debris. There is a variety of formulations in describing the predictive indicators about their predictive ability, which often causes confusion in selecting ballistic limit equations in accordance with the predictive indicators. By analyzing the concepts of the indicators, such as correctly predicted rates (including the correctly predicted rates of non-failure, failure, totality and safety) which are based on predicted probability, and prediction errors (including absolute and relative errors) which are based on predicted diameter deviation, the analytical expressions of the indicators are initially standardized, and the properties, value range and relationship between them are expounded, too. Accordingly, keeping the honeycomb sandwich panel structure as the study object and basing on 131 failure/non-failure impact physical experimental case data(from reference), the variation of each predictive indicator in the coefficient space of the ballistic limit equation is further elaborated. The results show that the transitions of the correctly predicted rate indicators are stepped, but the transitions of the prediction error indicators are smooth in the coefficient space.

Key words: space debris, ballistic limit equation, correctly predicted rate, prediction error, honeycomb sandwich panel, coefficient space

中图分类号:

V423.4⁺3

贾光辉, 欧阳智江, 蒋辉. 撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例[J]. 航空学报, 2013, 34(10): 2364-2371.

JIA Guanghui, OUYANG Zhijiang, JIANG Hui. Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations’ Predictive Indicators[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2013, 34(10): 2364-2371.

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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主管单位：中国科学技术协会主办单位：中国航空学会北京航空航天大学

撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例

Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations’ Predictive Indicators

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