航空学报 > 2003, Vol. 24 Issue (5): 427-430

航空武器装备全寿命周期风险评估方法比较与改进

郭鹏   

  1. 西北工业大学管理学院 陕西西安 710072
  • 收稿日期:2003-06-10 修回日期:2003-07-17 出版日期:2003-10-25 发布日期:2003-10-25

Comparison and Improvement of Risk Evaluation Methods for Entire Life Cycle (ELC) of Aeronautic Weapons

GUO Peng   

  1. Management School; Northwestern Polytechnical University; Xi'an 710072; China
  • Received:2003-06-10 Revised:2003-07-17 Online:2003-10-25 Published:2003-10-25

摘要: 针对航空武器装备全寿命周期风险的特点, 对评估方法做了适用性比较和选择性研究, 给出了各阶段风险评估方法的选择方案。依据灰色系统理论提出了一种改进的评估方法) ) ) 多层次灰色评估方法, 建立了评估模型, 给出了算例, 本方法具有样本点少、精确度高的特点。

关键词: 航空武器装备, 风险评估方法, 灰色评估模型, 全寿命周期

Abstract: Aimed at the character istics of the risk ELC of aeronautic weapons, the paper compared the applicabilitiesof r isk evaluation met hods, and then put forward different evaluation methods for different stages of ELC. Based ont he Grey System Theory, the paper put forth an improved evaluation method, namely, multi-hierarchy grey evaluation method, which is of merits of small sample number and high accur acy, and established an evaluation model withcalculating example.

Key words: aeronautic weapon, risk evaluation method, grey evaluation model, entire life cycle

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