PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2017.21705

固体力学与飞行器总体设计

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PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用

周舟, 郭基联, 周义蛟, 沈安慰

空军工程大学航空工程学院, 西安 710038

收稿日期:2017-08-29 修回日期:2017-11-03 出版日期:2018-03-15 发布日期:2017-11-03
通讯作者: 郭基联,E-mail:guojilian@aliyun.com E-mail:guojilian@aliyun.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（71501185）

Application of PLS-SEM in core parameter of armament cost estimation

ZHOU Zhou, GUO Jilian, ZHOU Yijiao, SHEN Anwei

School of Aeronautics Engineering, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China

Received:2017-08-29 Revised:2017-11-03 Online:2018-03-15 Published:2017-11-03
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (71501185)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 参数估算法是当前武器装备成本估算的主要方法。TruePlanning软件作为国际主流的参数法成本估算软件，其核心参数是制造复杂度（MCPLX）。由于该参数在武器装备发展早期无法准确获取，从而使得TruePlanning软件难以适用于新型武器装备的发展早期阶段。以美军战斗机/攻击机为研究对象，从装备性能参数出发，建立制造复杂度的偏最小二乘法的结构方程模型（PLS-SEM），并进行参数估计和检验。最终结果显示，所建模型拟合结果的平均相对误差为7.94%，拟合效果好；检验样本估算的平均相对误差为5.94%，预测能力较高，满足于战斗机/攻击机新型号发展早期进行费用估算的要求。这也为中国装备发展早期的费用估算工作开辟了新的思路。

关键词: 武器装备成本估算, TruePlanning软件, 制造复杂度, 战斗机/攻击机, 偏最小二乘法, 结构方程模型

Abstract: The parameter estimation method is the main method for estimating the cost of armament currently. As the international mainstream cost estimation software based on parameter estimation, the core parameter of TruePlanning software is Manufacturing ComPLeXity (MCPLX). Because this parameter cannot be accurately acquired in the early stage of armament development, TruePlanning software is difficult to be applied to the new armament in the early stages of development. Based on the performance parameters of armaments, a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) for MCPLX of the US fighter/attacker is established, and parameter estimation and testing are carried out. The results show that the proposed model has good fitting effect with the average relative error being 7.94%, and has high predictive ability with the average relative error of the test sample being 5.94%. The model can satisfy the requirements for estimating the cost of the new fighters/attackers in their early stages of development, opening up new ways for early-stage cost estimation of new armament development in China.

Key words: armament cost estimation, TruePlanning software, Manufacturing ComPLeXity (MCPLX), fighter/attacker, partial least squares method, structural equation model

中图分类号:

周舟, 郭基联, 周义蛟, 沈安慰. PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用[J]. 航空学报, 2018, 39(3): 221705-221705.

ZHOU Zhou, GUO Jilian, ZHOU Yijiao, SHEN Anwei. Application of PLS-SEM in core parameter of armament cost estimation[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2018, 39(3): 221705-221705.

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用

Application of PLS-SEM in core parameter of armament cost estimation

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