Performance degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for aero-engine based on nonlinear Wiener process

WANG Xi; HU Changhua; REN Ziqiang; XIONG Wei

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23291

ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >

2020 , Vol. 41 >Issue 2: 223291 - 223291

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23291

Solid Mechanics and Vehicle Conceptual Design

Performance degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for aero-engine based on nonlinear Wiener process

WANG Xi ,
HU Changhua ,
REN Ziqiang ,
XIONG Wei

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1. College of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an 710025, China;
2. College of Joint Service, National Defence University, Beijing 100089, China

Received date: 2019-07-16

Revised date: 2019-08-14

Online published: 2019-09-30

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (61833016, 61573365)

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Abstract

For the nonlinearity and three-source variability of aeroengines in the performance degradation process, a performance degradation modeling and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction method for aero-engines based on nonlinear Wiener process is proposed. First, in order to solve the limitations of potential hypothesis in most current RUL prediction methods, that is, the drift coefficient of the current time estimate is exactly equal to the posterior estimate of the drift coefficient of the previous time, a new class of performance degradation model considering both nonlinearity and three-source variability is established under the framework of state space model. Further, the associated RUL distribution is derived under the first hitting time. Then, for the newly developed aero-engines lacking historical data and prior information, a parameter estimation method based on the Kalman filtering and Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm is proposed, so that the estimated model parameters are independent of the historical data volume. After obtaining a new performance degradation data, the model parameters can be estimated adaptively so as to update the RUL distribution of aeroengines in real time. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of RUL prediction and provide a reliable basis for maintenance decision of aeroengines.

Key words： Wiener process; life prediction; performance degradation modeling; expectation conditional maximization; aero-engine

Cite this article

WANG Xi , HU Changhua , REN Ziqiang , XIONG Wei . Performance degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for aero-engine based on nonlinear Wiener process[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2020 , 41(2) : 223291 -223291 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23291

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