ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >
Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses
Received date: 2016-01-08
Revised date: 2016-06-14
Online published: 2016-06-20
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China (51605487); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M592965); Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation (ZR2016FQ03)
In order to solve the problem of predicting the lifetime of a type of missile component, a prediction method based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks is proposed. The product has two failure modes which are degradation failure and traumatic failure. Some stochastic processes, including Wiener, Gamma, and Inverse Gaussian, are adopted to fit the degradation data of performance indexes, and Copula functions are then utilized to model the dependent degradation failure. The shocks of random environmental stresses are used to explain the mechanism of traumatic failure, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process is applied to model the traumatic failure. Thus, a lifetime prediction model is set up based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure. An application example validates that the proposed method, which can model the failure mechanism of the missile component, possesses higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods, and are applicable in engineering.
WANG Haowei , TENG Ke'nan , LI Junliang . Lifetime prediction for missile components based on multiple parameters correlative degrading with random shocks of environmental stresses[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2016 , 37(11) : 3404 -3412 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0192
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