Abstract:

By using a probabilistic method, a mathematical model was established to describe a single aircraft attacking a single passive surface target in a threat environment. The expressions of the probability of mission success, the probability that the target is killed and the probability that the aircraft is killed for an air to surface target attacking operation were then deduced. The formulae for calculating the probability that the aircraft is killed once it encounters an enemy threat, the frequency that the aircraft encounters enemy threat, the probability that the target is killed once attacked by the aircraft and the mean time that the aircraft takes to acquire and attack the target are presented. Finally, various effectiveness measures of a combat aircraft in an air to surface attacking mission were discussed with a practical example.

Key words: m ilitary airp lane, air-to-surface target at tack ing, combat effect iveness