Abstract: A new approach in mathematical analog shoot (MAS) is presented for anlyzing random flight states of the moving targets and guidance miss distances of the missiles. It involves the application of Kalman filter theory combined with maximum likelihood mehtod and the analysis of random factor in flight process such as the deviations of aerodynamic, structural and control parameters of the missiles and any maneuver of the targets. In discussing different error property, the paper describes the method of correct covariances for flight dynamics in order to improve estimation accuracy of flight states In addition, estimation method about static errors of guidance senso; which have influence on the guidance miss distances is also presented in this paper.

Key words: mathematical analog shoot, Kalman filter theory, maximum likelihood method, estimation method