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Research on Risk Evaluation for Airlines Based on BBN

JIN Cancan1, ZUO Hongfu1, ZHANG Ying1, BAI Fang2   

  1. 1. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;
    2. Equipment Manufacturing Department, The 28th Research Institute of China Electronic Technology Group Corporation, Nanjing 210007, China
  • Received:2012-04-09 Revised:2012-08-02 Online:2013-03-25 Published:2013-03-29
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Civil Aviation Jointly Funded Foundation Project (60939003);National Natural Science Fund Committee and the Civil Aviation Administration of China Jointly Funded Project (61179058)

Abstract:

On the basis of the theory of MMEM (Man, Machine, Environment and Management) system, an airlines risk evaluation index system is established through a research on civil aviation rules and standards. The weights of indexes are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the qualitative indexes are quantified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Based on a Bayesian belief network (BBN) software—GeNIe, the whole system of the Bayesian network topology structure is established, and by using the historical data of airlines as Bayesian network parameter learning training data, a node probability table (NPT) is obtained. Thus an airline risk evaluation model is built to carry on the inference of probability calculation and determine the main impact factors on safety through chain analysis.

Key words: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Bayesian belief network, GeNIe, chain analysis, risk evaluation

CLC Number: