高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析
收稿日期: 2015-10-19
修回日期: 2015-11-22
网络出版日期: 2015-12-04
Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering
Received date: 2015-10-19
Revised date: 2015-11-22
Online published: 2015-12-04
沈作军 , 柳青 , 肖佳平 . 高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析[J]. 航空学报, 2016 , 37(1) : 317 -323 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0316
Different risks associated with decision party and system developer are modeled and analyzed aiming at the high risk characteristics of hypersonic vehicle development.Based upon the inherent probabilistic risks of system design and critical technologies,a generic test and verification process is adopted to calculate the probabilities of accepting unqualified systems by the decision party,or over-testing low risk systems or technologies by the developer.The relation between decision risk and developer's risk is studied,and then a system engineering approach for balancing the risks as well as optimizing the development cycle is proposed based on probability calculation.
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