材料工程与机械制造

基于经验的工程变更传播路径预测方法

  • 宫中伟 ,
  • 莫蓉 ,
  • 杨海成 ,
  • 陈涛
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  • 1. 西北工业大学 现代设计与集成制造技术教育部重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710072;
    2. 中国航天科技集团公司, 北京 100037
宫中伟 男, 博士研究生, 主要研究方向: 快速制造, 工程变更。 Tel: 029-88495354 E-mail: gongnwpu@hotmail.com;莫蓉 女, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师。主要研究方向: 网络CAD、 协同设计。 Tel: 029-88495354 E-mail: morong@nwpu.edu.cn;杨海成 男, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师。主要研究方向: 网络化制造, e-制造, 协同制造, 云制造。 Tel: 029-88495354 E-mail: yanghaicheng@vip.sina.com;陈涛 男, 博士研究生。主要研究方向: 等几何分析、 结构优化设计。 Tel: 029-88495354 E-mail: chentaonwpu@163.com

收稿日期: 2012-04-27

  修回日期: 2012-06-26

  网络出版日期: 2013-03-29

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(50805122)

History-based Engineering Change Propagation Predicting

  • GONG Zhongwei ,
  • MO Rong ,
  • YANG Haicheng ,
  • CHEN Tao
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  • 1. The Key Laboratory of Contemporary Design and Integrated Manufacturing Technology, Ministry of Education, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China;
    2. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, Beijing 100037, China

Received date: 2012-04-27

  Revised date: 2012-06-26

  Online published: 2013-03-29

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (50805122)

摘要

针对航空产品工程变更不易预测传播路径的问题,本文利用信息论和统计学的有关原理,提出了一套基于经验的工程变更传播路径预测方法。利用熵和互信息的概念,从海量经验数据中获取在预测过程中起到重要作用的参数;以其为样本空间,提出了一种从语义和变更影响两个角度计算变更参数相似度的算法;基于贝叶斯公式,分析了多因素情况下,相关参数的被影响概率,以此作为判断变更路径的依据;最后,以某型号航空涡轮叶盘为例对本文方法进行了验证,结果表明本文方法具有一定的准确度和优越性。

本文引用格式

宫中伟 , 莫蓉 , 杨海成 , 陈涛 . 基于经验的工程变更传播路径预测方法[J]. 航空学报, 2013 , 34(3) : 677 -685 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0106

Abstract

In view of the difficulties of engineering change propagation in aerospace products, a new history-based propagation path predicting method is proposed. Important parameters are obtained using the concepts of entropy and mutual information. Then, a parameter-similarity algorithm is proposed from the aspect of semantics and change-effect. Furthermore, the regulation and method of change propagation predicting are analyzed based on Bayes rules. Finally, an experiment of managing an aerospace turbine disk is performed to validate our method and it shows its validity and merits.

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