基于BBN的航空公司风险评估技术研究
收稿日期: 2012-04-09
修回日期: 2012-08-02
网络出版日期: 2013-03-29
基金资助
国家自然科学基金与中国民航联合资助基金重点项目(60939003);国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合资助项目(61179058)
Research on Risk Evaluation for Airlines Based on BBN
Received date: 2012-04-09
Revised date: 2012-08-02
Online published: 2013-03-29
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Civil Aviation Jointly Funded Foundation Project (60939003);National Natural Science Fund Committee and the Civil Aviation Administration of China Jointly Funded Project (61179058)
金灿灿 , 左洪福 , 张营 , 白芳 . 基于BBN的航空公司风险评估技术研究[J]. 航空学报, 2013 , 34(3) : 588 -596 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0096
On the basis of the theory of MMEM (Man, Machine, Environment and Management) system, an airlines risk evaluation index system is established through a research on civil aviation rules and standards. The weights of indexes are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the qualitative indexes are quantified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Based on a Bayesian belief network (BBN) software—GeNIe, the whole system of the Bayesian network topology structure is established, and by using the historical data of airlines as Bayesian network parameter learning training data, a node probability table (NPT) is obtained. Thus an airline risk evaluation model is built to carry on the inference of probability calculation and determine the main impact factors on safety through chain analysis.
[1] Zhao L Y, Gu J F. The application of probabilistic risk assessment approach to the safety analysis of one specific type of launch vehicle in China. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2000(6): 91-97. (in Chinese) 赵丽艳, 顾基发. 概率风险评估(PRA)方法在我国某型号运载火箭安全性分析中的应用. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000(6): 91-97.
[2] Wang H W, Zuo H F. Evaluation of airline safety. System Engineering, 2006(2): 46-51. (in Chinese) 王华伟, 左洪福. 航空公司安全评估研究.系统工程, 2006(2): 46-51.
[3] Ma G Z, Mi W Y, Liu X D. The civil aviation system safety multi level fuzzy evaluation method. Journal of Southwest Jiao Tong University, 2007, 42(1): 104-109. (in Chinese) 马国忠, 米文勇, 刘晓东. 民航系统安全的多层次模糊评估方法.西南交通大学学报, 2007, 42(1): 104-109.
[4] Wang H F. Safety risk assessment model for civil aviation flight phase based on BP neural network. Information and Electronic Engineering, 2010, 8(5): 612-615. (in Chinese) 王浩锋. 基于BP神经网络的民用航空航段安全风险评估. 信息与电子工程, 2010, 8(5): 612-615.
[5] Zhou Z B. Research on methods and application of probabilistic safety assessment based on Bayesian network. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2006: 22-23. (in Chinese) 周忠宝. 基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评估方法及应用研究. 长沙: 国防科技大学, 2006: 22-23.
[6] Greenberg R, Cook S C, Harris D. A civil aviation safety assessment model using a Bayesian belief network (BBN). The Aeronautical Journal, 2005, 109(1101): 557-568.
[7] McFadden K L, Towell E R. Aviation human factors: a framework for the new millennium. Journal of Air Transport Management, 1999(5): 177-184.
[8] Ruan D, Huang C F. Fuzzy sets and operations research for decision support (advances in fuzzy mathematics and engineering). Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press,2009.
[9] Xu J W. The formal safety assessment (FSA) of shipping company safety management. Shanghai: Shanghai Maritime University, 2004: 40-43, 48-53. (in Chinese) 许家武. 海运公司安全管理的FSA(综合安全评估)研究. 上海: 上海海事大学, 2004: 40-43, 48-53.
[10] Vidal L A, Marle F, Bocquet J C. Using a Delphi process and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate the complexity of projects. Expert Systems with Applications, 2011, 38(5): 5388-5405.
[11] Pearl J. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 1988.
[12] Khakzad N, Khan F, Amyotte P. Safety analysis in process facilities: comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011, 96(8): 925-932.
[13] Berry D A. Teaching elementary Bayesian statistics with real applications in science. The American Statistician, 1997, 51(3): 241-246.
[14] Tu F, Pattipati K. Rollout strategies for sequential fault diagnosis. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2003, 33(1): 269-295.
[15] Ramoni M, Sebastiani P. Learning Bayesian networks from incomplete data. KMi-TR-43. Knowledge Median Institute, The Open University, 1997.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
CJA