正态型有寿件的备件方案确定方法

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2017.221147

固体力学与飞行器总体设计

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正态型有寿件的备件方案确定方法

邵松世¹, 张志华¹, 李华², 刘任洋³

1. 海军工程大学科研部, 武汉 430033;
2. 海军工程大学兵器工程系, 武汉 430033;
3. 海军装备研究院, 北京 100161

收稿日期:2017-01-17 修回日期:2017-04-19 出版日期:2018-01-15 发布日期:2018-01-26
通讯作者: 邵松世,E-mail:369698199@qq.com E-mail:369698199@qq.com
基金资助:
国防预研项目（51304010206，51327020105）

Determination method for support plan for life-limited spares with normal distribution

SHAO Songshi¹, ZHANG Zhihua¹, LI Hua², LIU Renyang³

1. Office of Research & Development, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China;
2. Department of Weaponry Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China;
3. Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing 100161, China

Received:2017-01-17 Revised:2017-04-19 Online:2018-01-15 Published:2018-01-26
Supported by:
National Defense Pre-research Foundation of China (51304010206, 51327020105)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对有寿件工作寿命分布不确定、备件数量难预测的问题，提出了一种基于正态等效的有寿件备件方案确定方法。首先通过贝叶斯理论将有寿件的工作寿命分布等效为正态分布，进而计算其备件需求量；然后提出到寿更换概率用以度量部件在更换周期内的安全收益；最后通过综合权衡安全收益和经济成本确定有寿件的最佳更换周期，得到备件保障方案。在算例中，通过与仿真结果的对比表明：本文方法合理可行，精度较高。

关键词: 正态分布, 有寿件, 备件需求, 更换周期, 备件方案

Abstract: To address the problem of uncertainty of work life distribution and difficulty in predicting demands for life-limited spares, a determination method for support plan for life-limited spares is proposed based on normal-equivalence. The work life of life-limited spares is obtained to be equivalent to normal distribution based on Bayesian theory, and the number of the spares demand is then calculated. The life replacement probability is put forward to measure the safety benefits during the replacement cycle. The optimal replacement cycle is obtained by tradeoff between safety benefits and economic costs. A comparison of simulation and calculation results shows that our method is reasonable and feasible and owns high precision.

Key words: normal distribution, life-limited spares, spares demand, replacement cycle, spares plan

中图分类号:

邵松世, 张志华, 李华, 刘任洋. 正态型有寿件的备件方案确定方法[J]. 航空学报, 2018, 39(1): 221147-221147.

SHAO Songshi, ZHANG Zhihua, LI Hua, LIU Renyang. Determination method for support plan for life-limited spares with normal distribution[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2018, 39(1): 221147-221147.

参考文献

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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正态型有寿件的备件方案确定方法

Determination method for support plan for life-limited spares with normal distribution

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