基于改进证据网络的空战动态态势估计方法

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0117

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基于改进证据网络的空战动态态势估计方法

王昱^1,2, 章卫国¹, 傅莉², 黄得刚¹, 李勇³

1. 西北工业大学自动化学院, 西安 710129;
2. 沈阳航空航天大学自动化学院, 沈阳 110136;
3. 沈阳工业大学电气工程学院, 沈阳 110870

收稿日期:2015-02-06 修回日期:2015-05-04 出版日期:2015-12-15 发布日期:2015-12-28
通讯作者: 王昱,Tel.:024-89724448,E-mail:yuki1120@sina.com E-mail:yuki1120@sina.com
作者简介:王昱,女,博士研究生,讲师。主要研究方向:无人机空战态势估计、目标分配方法。Tel:024-89724448,E-mail:yuki1120@sina.com;章卫国,男,博士,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:现代控制方法与智能控制方法及应用,先进与智能飞行控制及优化技术,容错控制方法及应用,基于无人机平台的自主控制与飞行验证技术,E-mail:zhangwg@nwpu.edu.cn;傅莉,女,博士,教授,硕士生导师。主要研究方向:混杂对策建模方法,智能控制技术以及磁流变阻尼器应用技术,E-mail:ffulli@163.com;黄得刚,男,博士研究生。主要研究方向:飞行器路径规划导航、制导与控制,E-mail:hdg0216@163.com;李勇,男,博士,讲师,硕士生导师。主要研究方向:多目标优化算法、轧制流程优化与控制,E-mail:liyong.neu@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(61374032);航空科学基金(2012ZA01011);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目(L2015412)

Dynamic situation assessment method of aerial warfare based on improved evidence network

WANG Yu^1,2, ZHANG Weiguo¹, FU Li², HUANG Degang¹, LI Yong³

1. School of Automation, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710129, China;
2. School of Automation, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China;
3. School of Electrical Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China

Received:2015-02-06 Revised:2015-05-04 Online:2015-12-15 Published:2015-12-28
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (61374032); Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2012ZA01011); General Science Research Project of Department of Education of Liaoning (L2015412)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对无人机空战态势估计既需要综合考虑多类型因素影响,又需要具有不确定性推理能力的特点,建立了一种基于改进证据网络的动态态势估计模型并设计了威胁等级评估推理方法。首先,考虑空战决策时间较短的特点,提出变量框架等级缩减方法以提高网络运行效率;然后,针对空战态势信息具有大不确定性的特点增加冲突数据自适应融合算法以及网络证据的时间序列预测,提高证据的合理性;最后,引入时空融合思想和变权机制将前一时刻的威胁信息作为评判后一时刻威胁的重要标准,应用威胁在时间维度上的递归合成增加信息在时间方向的传递,改善了由于证据失真引起的评估结果的不合理性问题,并通过仿真验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 改进证据网络, 态势估计, 推理, 等级缩减, 证据合理性, 时空信息融合, 变权

Abstract:

Aimed at the comprehensive consideration for the impact types and the need of reasoning ability with uncertainty that situation assessment of UAV aerial warfare requires, a model of dynamic situation assessment based on improved evidence network is established and the threat level evaluation reasoning method is designed. Firstly, considering the characteristics of short decision time, a grade reduction method for variable recognition frame is proposed to improve the network operation efficiency. Then according to the characteristics of large uncertainties of aerial warfare situation information, the adaptive combination arithmetic of conflicting data and the time series prediction for evidence are added to advance the rationality of evidence. Finally, the temporal-spatial fusion thought and the variable weight mechanism are also introduced to make the threat information of previous time an important standard for the threat assessment of the next time. Due to the threat recursion combination in the temporal direction, the threat information transmission is increased. It is verified that the problem of irrational assessment results caused by the distortion of information is improved and the proposed method is effectively validated by the simulation examples.

Key words: improved evidence network, situation assessment, inference, grade reduction, evidence rationality, temporal-spatial information fusion, variable weight

中图分类号:

V247.1
TP181

王昱, 章卫国, 傅莉, 黄得刚, 李勇. 基于改进证据网络的空战动态态势估计方法[J]. 航空学报, 2015, 36(12): 3896-3909.

WANG Yu, ZHANG Weiguo, FU Li, HUANG Degang, LI Yong. Dynamic situation assessment method of aerial warfare based on improved evidence network[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2015, 36(12): 3896-3909.

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E-mail：hkxb@buaa.edu.cn

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主管单位：中国科学技术协会主办单位：中国航空学会北京航空航天大学

基于改进证据网络的空战动态态势估计方法

Dynamic situation assessment method of aerial warfare based on improved evidence network

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