关键词: 机匣包容性, 贝叶斯估计, 置信界限, 击穿率, 专家意见, 贝塔分布

Abstract:

The case containment is described by the puncture rate, whose assessment result is represented by the state of knowledge probability curve. Considering the step by step improvement in the related knowledge and information, a dynamic and recurring method is advocated of assessing the containment with Bayes theorem and the solution is obtained to the problem in its practical application: how to set forth a prior Beta distribution.

Key words: case containment, Bayes estimations, confidence limits, puncture rate, expert opinions, Beta distribution