ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >
Efficient analysis method of reliability lifetime and its application in turbine shaft
Received date: 2025-04-10
Revised date: 2025-06-18
Accepted date: 2025-07-30
Online published: 2025-08-11
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(12572141)
In order to ensure the safe service of aero structure, it is of great significance to evaluate the reliability lifetime under the constraint of extremely small target failure probability. However, the computational efficiency of the existing reliability lifetime analysis methods is difficult to meet the requirements of reliability lifetime analysis under high reliability requirements in engineering effectively. For this issue, a sequential stratified importance sampling method based on the first failure instant is proposed to solve reliability lifetime. Firstly, a sequential stratified exploration strategy for the rare failure domain with the extremely small target failure probability is established, which transforms the exploration problem of the rare failure domain into a gradual exploration problem of a series of failure domains with large probabilities, and it can effectively reduce the difficulty of obtaining the rare failure domain information. Secondly, the method for hierarchically constructing the explicit rule importance sampling density function is proposed to reduce the difficulty and computational complexity of obtaining the importance sample in the rare failure domain, which improves the computational efficiency for solving the reliability lifetime. Finally, in order to reduce the number of model evaluations, the Kriging surrogate model is embedded into the proposed sequential stratified importance sampling method, and an adaptive update strategy guided by misjudgment of the first failure instant is designed, which improve the efficiency of the sequential stratified importance sampling method to solve the reliability lifetime under the constraint of the extremely small target failure probability. The results show that, for the test function, the proposed method reduces the number of model evaluations and computational time by up to 45.4% and 99.6%, respectively, compared with the state-of-the-art methods. For a certain type of aero-engine turbine shaft structure, the proposed method reduces the number of model evaluations and computational time by up to 40.2% and 90.7%, respectively, compared with the state-of-the-art methods.
Yixin LU , Zhenzhou LYU , Hengchao LI . Efficient analysis method of reliability lifetime and its application in turbine shaft[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2026 , 47(2) : 232111 -232111 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2025.32111
| [1] | 郝静, 卢海林, 陈龙. 基于PDEM的正交异性钢桥面板焊接节点时变疲劳可靠度评估[J]. 振动与冲击, 2024, 43(18): 87-95. |
| HAO J, LU H L, CHEN L. Time-dependent fatigue reliability assessment for welded joints of orthotropic steel bridge decks based on the probability density evolution method[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2024, 43(18): 87-95 (in Chinese). | |
| [2] | MEI F B, CHEN H, YANG W Y, et al. Time-dependent reliability analysis of aerospace electromagnetic relay considering hybrid uncertainties quantification of probabilistic and interval variables[J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2024, 37(12): 99-115. |
| [3] | 员婉莹. 结构可靠性及全局灵敏度分析算法研究[D]. 西安: 西北工业大学, 2019. |
| YUN W Y. Research on structural reliability and global sensitivity analysis algorithm[D]. Xi’an: Northwestern Polytechnical University, 2019 (in Chinese). | |
| [4] | LU Y X, LU Z Z, FENG K X. Safety lifetime analysis using two-phase subset simulation combined with Kriging model[J]. AIAA Journal, 2023, 61(10): 4681-4696. |
| [5] | RICE S O. Mathematical analysis of random noise[J]. Bell System Technical Journal, 1944, 23(3): 282-332. |
| [6] | LI C Q, FIROUZI A, YANG W. Closed-form solution to first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes[J]. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2016, 142(12): 04016103. |
| [7] | LI Q W, WANG C, ELLINGWOOD B R. Time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of non-stationary loads and degradation[J]. Structural Safety, 2015, 52: 132-141. |
| [8] | YUAN X K, LIU S L, FAES M, et al. An efficient importance sampling approach for reliability analysis of time-variant structures subject to time-dependent stochastic load[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Proces-sing, 2021, 159: 107699. |
| [9] | HU Z, DU X P. A sampling approach to extreme value distribution for time-dependent reliability analysis[J]. Journal of Mechanical Design, 2013, 135(7): 071003. |
| [10] | LI J, CHEN J B, FAN W L. The equivalent extreme-value event and evaluation of the structural system reliability[J]. Structural Safety, 2007, 29(2): 112-131. |
| [11] | WANG Z Q, CHEN W. Confidence-based adaptive extreme response surface for time-variant reliability analysis under random excitation[J]. Structural Safety, 2017, 64: 76-86. |
| [12] | WANG Z Q, WANG P F. A double-loop adaptive sampling approach for sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015, 142: 346-356. |
| [13] | JEREZ D J, JENSEN H A, BEER M. Reliability-based design optimization of structural systems under stochastic excitation: An overview[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2022, 166: 108397. |
| [14] | BARAN I, TUTUM C C, HATTEL J H. Reliability estimation of the pultrusion process using the first-order reliability method (FORM)[J]. Applied Composite Materials, 2013, 20(4): 639-653. |
| [15] | JACQUELIN E, ADHIKARI S, FRISWELL M I. A second-moment approach for direct probabilistic model updating in structural dynamics[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2012, 29: 262-283. |
| [16] | MAHADEVAN S, DEY A. Adaptive Monte Carlo simulation for time-variant reliability analysis of brittle structures[J]. AIAA Journal, 1997, 35: 321-326. |
| [17] | AU S K, BECK J L. Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2001, 16(4): 263-277. |
| [18] | HU Z, MAHADEVAN S. A single-loop Kriging surrogate modeling for time-dependent reliability analysis[J]. Journal of Mechanical Design, 2016, 138(6): 061406. |
| [19] | YUN W Y, LU Z Z, JIANG X, et al. Maximum probable life time analysis under the required time-dependent failure probability constraint and its meta-model estimation[J]. Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 2017, 55(4): 1439-1451. |
| [20] | HU Y S, LU Z Z, WEI N, et al. A single-loop Kriging surrogate model method by considering the first failure instant for time-dependent reliability analysis and safety lifetime analysis[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 2020, 145: 106963. |
| [21] | LI C C, DER KIUREGHIAN A. Optimal discretization of random fields[J]. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 1993, 119(6): 1136-1154. |
| [22] | 史朝印, 吕震宙, 李璐祎, 等. 基于自适应Kriging代理模型的交叉熵重要抽样法[J]. 航空学报, 2020, 41(1): 223123. |
| SHI Z Y, LYU Z Z, LI L Y, et al. Cross-entropy importance sampling method based on adaptive Kriging model[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2020, 41(1): 223123 (in Chinese). | |
| [23] | 宋述芳, 吕震宙. 基于子集模拟和重要抽样的可靠性灵敏度分析方法[J]. 力学学报, 2008, 40(5): 654-662. |
| SONG S F, LYU Z Z. Reliability sensitivity analysis based on subset simulation and importance sampling[J]. Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, 2008, 40(5): 654-662 (in Chinese). | |
| [24] | ECHARD B, GAYTON N, LEMAIRE M. AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation[J]. Structural Safety, 2011, 33(2): 145-154. |
| [25] | LU Y X, LU Z Z. A novel cross-entropy-based importance sampling method for cumulative time-dependent failure probability function[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2025, 253: 110511. |
| [26] | 何良莉. 结构可靠性和重要性研究及其在某涡轮轴疲劳寿命可靠性设计中的应用[D]. 西安: 西北工业大学, 2021. |
| HE L L. Research on reliability analysis ad important measure analysis of the structures and its application in reliability-based optimization design of fatigue life of an aeroengine turbine shaft[D]. Xi’an: Northwestern Polytechnical University, 2021 (in Chinese). | |
| [27] | 陆艺鑫, 吕震宙, 冯凯旋, 等. 涡轮轴低周疲劳寿命可靠性分析及优化设计方法研究[J]. 推进技术, 2022, 43(2): 14-26. |
| LU Y X, LYU Z Z, FENG K X, et al. Probability analysis and reliability based design optimization methods for low cycle fatigue life of turbine shaft[J]. Journal of Propulsion Technology, 2022, 43(2): 14-26 (in Chinese). |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |