Remaining useful life prediction for adaptive Wiener process method with random shock

DONG Qing; ZHENG Jianfei; HU Changhua; YU Tonghui; MU Hanxiao

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2022.25914

ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >

2022 , Vol. 43 >Issue 9: 225914 - 225914

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7527/S1000-6893.2022.25914

Solid Mechanics and Vehicle Conceptual Design

Remaining useful life prediction for adaptive Wiener process method with random shock

DONG Qing ,
ZHENG Jianfei ,
HU Changhua ,
YU Tonghui ,
MU Hanxiao

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1. College of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an 710025, China;
2. The First Military Representative Office of the Rocket Force in Xi'an, Xi'an 710100, China

Received date: 2021-06-07

Revised date: 2021-07-16

Online published: 2022-09-30

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (61773386, 61833016, 61922089, 62073336); National Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (2020JM-360)

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Abstract

The existing method for predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the degraded equipment with random shock is not suitable for the situation with uneven measurement intervals and inconsistent measurement frequencies. This type of method also ignores the variability of adaptive drift in the future degradation process. In view of this, based on the adaptive Wiener process, this paper proposes a RUL prediction method for the non-linearly degraded equipment with random shock. Firstly, the normal distribution is used to describe the influence of random shock on equipment degradation, and an adaptive Wiener process degradation model considering random shock is established. Then, the analytical expression of RUL is derived in the sense of the first arrival time. Considering the variability of degradation drift and the influence of random impact on the degradation rate, a state space model is developed to realize online update of equipment RUL, and the model parameter estimation is conducted based on expectation maximization algorithm. Finally, numerical simulation, inertial navigation system gyroscope and lithium battery examples verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method from different angles.

Key words： random shock; adaptive Wiener process; normal distribution; expectation maximization; remaining useful life

Cite this article

DONG Qing , ZHENG Jianfei , HU Changhua , YU Tonghui , MU Hanxiao . Remaining useful life prediction for adaptive Wiener process method with random shock[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022 , 43(9) : 225914 -225914 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2022.25914

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