Quantitative validation methods for accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results

ZHOU Yuan; WANG Haowei; GAI Bingliang

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2018.21950

ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >

2018 , Vol. 39 >Issue 9: 221950 - 221959

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7527/S1000-6893.2018.21950

Solid Mechanics and Vehicle Conceptual Design

Quantitative validation methods for accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results

ZHOU Yuan ,
WANG Haowei ,
GAI Bingliang

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1. The Third Academy, Naval Aviation University, Yantai 264001, China;
2. Academy of Armament Engineering, Naval Engineering University, Wuhan 430032, China

Received date: 2017-12-29

Revised date: 2018-03-26

Online published: 2018-06-09

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (51605487); Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2016FQ03); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M592965)

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Abstract

The accelerated degradation test improves the efficiency of reliability assessment by sacrificing some assessment accuracy, and there are commonly deviations between extrapolated reliability results and true values. Thus, it is necessary to validate the accuracy of the accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results. The technical flow for validating the accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results are designed according to the steps of reliability modeling, and a validation technology framework is constructed with the Wiener-Arrhenius accelerated degradation model. The model validation method based on hypothesis test is adopted. The application reasonability of the Wiener degradation model, accelerated degradation model and extrapolated reliability model is validated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests. A practical method for validating extrapolated results based on the area ratio is proposed, which solves the integral problem of complex functions using Monte Carlo simulation. The area ratio is applied to quantitatively describe the accuracy of extrapolated results, and a threshold of area ratio is specified to determine whether to accept the extrapolated results or not. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed technology framework is demonstrated by a case study of the servo circuit of the inertial navigation system. The proposed quantitative validation methods show great applicability in practice.

Key words： accelerated degradation model; quantitative validation; hypothesis test; Wiener-Arrhenius; Monte Carlo simulation

Cite this article

ZHOU Yuan , WANG Haowei , GAI Bingliang . Quantitative validation methods for accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2018 , 39(9) : 221950 -221959 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2018.21950

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